Great news on PA/RI/CT. DE will also be a Trump rout. The only quasi-vulnerable state on Tuesday is MD. Trump will win, but Kay-sick or Lyin’ Ted may have a shot at some of the CDs near DC.
50% is the magic number for the whole Connecticut delegation (28) or it becomes proportional for the 13 statewide and WTA for the 5 CDs (at 3 delegates each).
A win in PA will get the 17 statewide bound delegates and make it more likely that a good portion of the Congressional Delegates (18x3 for 54 total) become soft delegates for Trump.
Rhode Island has the most complicated formulas as far as the delegate count goes. All three candidates will likely split the 6 CD delegates and the 3 RNC delegates for a floor of 3/3/3.
If Trump gets over 50% of the statewide vote, he’ll likely take 7 of the 10 statewide delegation for a total of 10 of the 19 state delegates. They use a round-down system in RI, where the winner gets the extra delegates statewide. The CD and RNC delegates are basically split 1/1/1 assuming Kasich and Cruz break a 10% floor and Trump does not get 66.7% of the vote.
DE is straight winner take all for the 16 delegates there. This one will easily end in the Trump camp.
Which takes us to MD, which technically is the biggest pledged delegate prize of the night (38). Trump is poised to take the 14 statewide delegates. The question is how many of the remaining 8 CDs can he nail down. They are strict winner takes all.
Handicapping NE Super Tuesday, you’re likely looking at a Trump range of somewhere between 95 and 106 of the 118 pledged delegates assuming the polling data is accurate.
Best case assumes a 10-9 split in RI and the loss of 1 CD in MD.
Worst case assumes a 9-10 split in RI and the loss of 4 CDs in MD