By the time Indiana Votes on the third, following Cruz’s humiliating defeat in NY and being clean swept again next Tuesday in all 5 states, and coming in 3rd place in at least 2 or 3 of them, I would fully expect he’ll lose by double digits at the minimal in Indiana on the 3rd.
There are only 3 states left where Cruz is likely to pull out a win, NE, MT and SD... and that’s not even guaranteed.
This “contested convention” will get Cruz the nomination at this point is just delusion. The party is not going to hand the nomination to someone who’s only win east of the Mississippi was ME and who’s coming in third as often as second in a 3 way race in the home stretch.
Yes the GOPe may not like Trump, but they are not remotely going to hand the nomination to Cruz should, by some miracle, Trump does not get to 1237.
Over the last few days, I've repeatedly challenged 2DV, other Cruz fanboys, or any Ted Cruz supporter anywhere to state any plausible scenario whereby Ted Cruz limps into the GOP convention with, at best, 700 delegates or so, and magically seizes the nomination from Donald Trump without irreparably splintering the party, destroying voter enthusiasm, inducing countless Trump voters to stay home, and guaranteeing a Hillary victory in November.
What response have I gotten?
Crickets.
These Ted Cruz fanboys know the truth, as does their preferred candidate, Ted Cruz, and yet they still insist on their suicidal quest to both wreck their own party and even risk their country, all for one man's blind personal ambition. Absolutely shameful.
It would be laughable if it weren't so dangerous.
At this point, Ted Cruz's egotism and narcissism make Donald Trump's ostensible character deficits pale in comparison. They long ago ceded the moral high ground.
Vote Trump
He's going to clean up again this coming Tuesday in CT, PA, DE, RI and MD and probably come away with 80% or more of available delegates. He should now win IN the following week.
Week after that (May 10), WV and NE should be a wash with Trump taking WV and Cruz taking NE. They have about the same number of delegates.
Then we have OR and WA which are proportional and so Trump will definitely take delegates out of there if not win outright.
At this point, Trump will be at 1100 and that's being conservative. This does NOT include the 54 unbound delegates from PA, of which we know Trump should get at least 40.
This brings us to the June 7 finale with CA, NJ, SD, NM and MT at stake. We know Trump will get the 51 in NJ which means worse case scenario, he'd only need to pull 86 of the 172 CA delegates to get over the top. That's regardless of how SD, NM and MT turn out. That's also regardless of how many of those 54 unbound PA delegates end up voting.
Simply put, Trump has a pretty easy path to 1237 at this point. The 1300 his campaign is aiming for seems very doable.