I honestly believe at this point that Trump will probably take more than 57% of the remaining delegates and go over 1,237 before the convention.
TAKING THE COUNTRY BACK..!
Been keepin’ a list,
Checkin’ it twice,
Gonna find out who’s been naughty or nice....
(MOST OF THEM NAUGHTY)
I honestly believe at this point that Trump will probably take more than 57% of the remaining delegates and go over 1,237 before the convention.
Then the campaign is deluding itself.
For Trump to NOT win before the convention, there would have to be a serious collapse for him in IN, CA, and the uncommitted. I don’t see that happening.
Actually, probably more than that.
Once the nose counters see it’s safe at 1300+, everyone will want to be on the Trump Train, and delegates, who are supposedly bound to Cruz or Kasich on the first ballot will hop aboard with Trump.
BTW, Party rules and even laws notwithstanding, no one is ever really penalized for not voting for their pledged candidate, even on the first ballot.
Even if state party rules penalize them, the winning candidate then gets the state party chair on the phone and goes through the ritual of the “We need everybody working to make sure we win....” phone call... and “all sins are forgiven.”
The clock is ticking. The bell tolls for Ted.
Ping.
This is actually quite reasonable. Trump is unlikely to make it by just a few delegates. If he’s going over the threshold, the party leadership will not be able to pretend that it is unanimous consent, but they will not want it to look like he just barely made it either. More than that, those who want to rise or want positions in the Trump administration will want to deliver delegates to avoid the appearance that Trump just barely got the nomination.
Trump is more likely to miss by a lot (100 or more) or make it by a lot (again, 100 or more) than he is to have a very close margin on the first ballot. Note: this assumes the establishment-outsider dynamic will not remain too severe once the insiders see that they have lost.