Such an event, so long as the present rules are maintained and the process remains limited to Trump or Cruz, will not represent a coup against the voters by the Republican establishment but the upwelling of sentiment by conservative grassroots activists. It is perfectly understandable that conservative grassroots activists will turn to the only conservative available, Ted Cruz.
When Ted Cruz contests within the rules for the nomination he is accused of splintering the party. Yet it is Donald Trump who was threatened to bolt the party not Ted Cruz. I ask you, will you support Ted Cruz if he emerges from the convention as the nominee? Why is the refusal of Trump supporters to come to the aid of the party if their man cannot win the delegates legitimate, but the desires of Cruz supporters to advance their own man illegitimate? As you know, I am pledged to support Trump if nominated and I will do so. Will you support Cruz if he is nominated?
It is misleading to extrapolate data from primaries onto the general electorate. For example, Donald Trump won big in New York which advances him toward the nomination but does not advance him 1 mm toward victory in the general election because the Democrats, having swamped Republicans in New York State better than two to one, will carry New York despite the fantasies spun by Donald Trump. Neither Trump, Kasich nor Cruz will carry New York.
As to the swing states, extrapolation is misleading. How did Romney do in the swing states after carrying them in the primaries? Donald Trump has won many of the swing states with bare pluralities. The majority of Republicans voted for other candidates. The job of Ted Cruz will be to consolidate those Republican voters, including Trump supporters who are not sore heads. The model for the Cruz campaign is not Romney but Reagan. In other words, the Cruz campaign will either succeed or fail on his ability to sell a conservative message as did Reagan. Trump is selling Trump and that is palatable to a limited demographic and repugnant to a huge portion of the electorate. As a conservative, I believe a conservative message can prevail.
I believe I have answered your questions responsibly, although no doubt unsatisfactorily. Despite your injunctions, I would like to make this remark about the character of Donald Trump: There is more to choosing a nominee for President of the United States of America than the likelihood of winning, as important as that might be. There is the question of the man's character. You and I have wrangled over the issue of Donald Trump's character for a long time and I respect you are skills in defending your guy. As you know, I am convinced that Trump is unworthy of the office because of his grotesque failings of character as demonstrated by his biography. We are entitled to consider whether a man is morally fit for the office and it is my opinion that Donald Trump is the third worst candidate for that office from the perspective of character.
