You missed a major step.
He has to win the election and not lose the House and Senate in the process.
With his negatives, that’s a tall wish.
OK, here is a serious question I asked Cruz supporters, but none ever answered. What states could Ted Cruz win that Mitt Romney lost?
Cruz's appeal seems very limited. He appeals to party functionaries and the most committed GOP loyalists, thus accounting for him winning tightly controlled caucuses and conventions like Colorado. He seem to have some appeal to evangelicals: he won Oklahoma.
I think Trump could put these states in play, much more so than Cruz, because he has made the Trade Treaties that have been devastating them central to his campaign: Ohio, Michigan, Indiana, Pennsylvania, and perhaps Wisconson.
Trump won Florida, over the sitting Senator and ex-Governor.
Even if you disagree with Trump's policies doesn't it appear at this point that he has by far the best chance of actually winning. Maybe not a great chance, but a shot.
Compare the crowds coming to see Trump with Romney and McCain's anemic events. Cruz can't really put up anything like that.
The last two elections have been won by a media figure, Barack Obama. It's not clear that a "Mr. Clean Cut" like Romney can win in today's media environment. Trump is clearly the most attuned to the media.
Finally, like a lot of GOP voters I was just sickened by Romney's campaign. Did he *want* to lose? McCain might have been worse. (Only Palin actually went out and said some things that needed to be said.)
I have ZERO doubt that Trump will bring every hidden horror of Hillary's pathetic career into full view and dissection. I have doubts about whether Cruz would.
So, even from a purely tactical point of view I think there is a lot to be said about Trump as the candidate.