Anti-establishment voters who support either Cruz or Trump cannot ignore the first round delegate count NOR the second round delegate count.
The reality is that Trump has about 750 and Cruz has about 550. That means even on the first ballot Trump still needs 487 and Cruz needs 687 on the first ballot.
On the second ballot that means that Cruz has to BOTH keep his current delegates in line for him and STILL come up with about 487 delegates, assuming he wins another 200 first round delegates between now and Jun 8.
If Trump wins another 200 or so delegates, then he’d have to keep those he has and come up with another 287 between now and June 8.
So, for the 2nd ballot Cruz has to STILL come up with 487 delegates who are honestly, with integrity, pledged only to him on the 2nd ballot WHILE keeping ALL those he already has, and that’s assuming he wins another 200 delegates during the primary.
Whoever you are, you have to admit that this will not be easy.
After the first ballot, 60% of the delegates overcome unbound, ad they don’t have too vote for the candidate that won the primaries. It’s going to come down to who has been working hard on the delegate selection. Trump hasn’t. Cruz has.