“Unless Cruz gets more than half the delegates in NY, he will be mathematically eliminated from getting to 1237. Then you will have Trump running against two opponents, neither of which can get to 1237.
That will change the dynamics of the race. Even Cruz supporters will now understand what they are voting for. Not all of them want Cruz to win it backdoor ... most want him to win it fair and square”
___________________________________________________________________________
In reality, that is the case right now...both Cruz and Kasich cannot get to 1,237 based upon the remaining available delegates in upcoming primaries, including NY. Cruz has seen this coming and had the forethought to organize at the local level for friendly delegates on possible 2nd or 3rd ballots at the convention!
After Wisconsin, Trump still needs almost 70% of available delegates from these upcoming states to get to 1,237. That’s still no easy task unless both Cruz and Kasich drop out...
Kasich has not been 1,237 viable for weeks, yet he stays in and people still keep voting for him...I think the same will happen with Cruz...
The campaign focus is now only about denying Trump...the media wants to see the fireworks of a contested GOP convention (best chance for Hillary)...I think the media, and certainly the GOPe, does not want either Cruz or Trump as the nominee, so they will keep these guys floating to Cleveland...it’s good for ratings!
Quite frankly, the most likely outcome is that Trump will fall short of 1,237. Then, The Donald will have some choices. He can bury the hatchet with Ted and produce an anti-establishment unity ticket. Together, they would control the entire convention!
Trump might also try to form an alliance with either Rubio or Kasich to hopefully garner enough of their 100-or so delegates to push him over the 1,237 threshold. If he goes this route, I’d put my money on Kasich!
He could also try to go it alone with less that 1,237, but if he whiffs on the first ballot his campaign will likely be over. Unlike Cruz, he has not organized at the local level for delegate selection...seems to only be waking up to the reality this week!
Much depends on the delegate math after June 7th. It will be very interesting to see how this all unfolds!
“Trump might also try to form an alliance with either Rubio or Kasich to hopefully garner enough of their 100-or so delegates to push him over the 1,237 threshold. If he goes this route, I’d put my money on Kasich!”
This my most like scenario with Kasich being the main choice. He has about 143 delegates and Trump won’t need that many to push over the top for a first ballot win. He’s a dealmaker by trade so if he can’t cut a deal to avoid a floor fight at the convention I will be very disappointed in him.