Posted on 04/04/2016 10:19:52 PM PDT by NYRepublican72
Tuesday, April 5, 2016
42 of 2,472 delegates
(42 bound)
For primary dates and times:
Official GOP websites for states.
For delegate allocation:
The Green Papers
Frontloading Blogspot
For polling data:
Real Clear Politics
Trump's best district should be CD 7, followed by CD 8 or CD 3.
Trump will have a good night, if he wins the inner-city Milwaukee District (CD-2), which is reportedly a close three-way contest.
CD-2 is also Kasich's best opportunity to get on the board.
CD-1, Southern Wisconsin (Ryan's district) will likely be the bellwether in this race. Cruz is favored to win here, along with CD-6.
I have it roughly as Cruz with a range of 30-36 delegates, Trump 6-9, Kasich 0-3.
Of course, that assumes that ARG is an outlier. If Trump pulls the upset expect him to pull CDs 1, 2, 3, 7, 8, with Cruz favored in 4, 5 and 6 close.
Nice analysis. Thanks.
I don’t know if any of the current polls took into effect the open primary. Cruz should win but you never know. It will be close. And then again....I could be wrong.
Yep, it’s open and it’s Union. Those two factors favor Trump. (I think)
Good job. Thanks for the info.
The ARG poll had the electorate at 40% Independents.
Not going to happen
Cruz wins 39 or 42 out of 42 delegates
I don’t think it will be a clean sweep. Cruz has a tendency of picking up extra votes in certain CDs that are more suited to him, which leaves those that aren’t a little bit thin. (See MO).
I stand by the 30-39 guestimate, which will also likely be the outcome if Trump somehow pulls off an upset. I do not buy the ARG numbers. I think Cruz +5 is about right.
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