Well, it’s an ARG poll, which are generally only slightly less reliable than a magic eightball.
Yes but this poll was conducted in the last 3 days, making it the only poll to have been conducted so recently. A pollster is rarely this far off. There is a sense that things have been tightening. A poll out last night (and conducted longer than this poll) found Cruz ahead by only 5. It could be that 4/1-3 has seen a real Trump surge. After all, Mr. Trump is campaigning his tail off in Wisconsin!
One of these things is not like the other, not like the other, not like the other....
As much as I wish it to be true ARG is about as reliable as a meth head is showing up to work on time.
Given Cruz leading I think 12 of the past now 16 polls in Wisconsin except the two Carson won way back....I think trump now has 4 and one of those 4 was a tie
I’m skeptical
Wisconsin was ALWAYS CRUZ’S TO LOSE
not this false narrative that Trump lost his lead in Wisconsin
That simply has not been the case
But about ARG
They are primarily a conservative polling group and have overweighed GOP respondents in last two POTUS generals which hurt them stats wise where as lib pollsters like WASHPO and ABC have been boosted by over sampling Dems like they do
ARG predictive plus or minus is .8
ABC is .7
IBD is .1.....the best
Massie is 1.7. one of the worst
ARG is in the bottom quarter of the largest firms accuracy wise but in the top half of the big 100 firms nationwide or better than average and it’s due to being GOP overweighed in general elections which won’t be the same issue in GOP primaries
And remember also the discrepancy spread we’re talking about here is much less than average margin of error
So it’s an exaggeration what you claimed
But I’m still skeptical anyway
Just on odds if Cruz has beaten Trump in 75% of the last 7 weeks polls you’d be wise to bet Cruz unless Trump won the last 4-5 in a row