This just reinforces what I’ve been saying: if Cruz’s supporters realize that he isn’t going to get the 1237 delegates he needs, and that there is no way in Hell the RNC will allow him to be the nominee in a brokered convention, surely Cruz realizes this too.
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Of course, he knows the establishment doesn’t want him. Why do you think he has been lining up delegates like crazy for the second ballot? Sure, they have some power over some delegates in certain states. However, most delegates are just people that tend to be a lot more conservative than the republicans in Washington.
Cruz will win on the second ballot, and there is nothing the RNC can do about it.
What if Ryan’s primary opponent wins, who does the gop-e back then?
How I wish that it were so, but I have been involved in local politics. The people who get to go to the convention are the people who have been involved in the party the longest and have given the most. This is true all over the country. The party insiders all know this. In Tennessee, they not only wouldn't nominate Trump and Cruz people to be delegates, they wouldn't even let them attend the party meeting.
If no candidate gets a majority of pledged delegates before the convention the party bosses will pick the nominee and it will not be Cruz or Trump. We must start looking at what the actual outcome is likely to be. The time for animosity around here is now behind us. It is time we all start working together, or we will lose.
Delegates pledged to Cruz (or Trump) aren't pledged to them because they support or like them, but because they've been assigned to do so following primaries or caucuses. Most of these delegates are small-time political operatives and other hacks beholden to the RNC, and they will support an establishment candidate in the second round, when they're no longer pledged to Cruz or Trump. If we have a brokered convention, say hello to nominee Ryan, Bush, Romney, or Rubio.
The Cruz vs. Trump fight is basically a replay of past primaries: anti-establishment candidates split the conservative/populist/libertarian vote, while the establishment coalesces around one candidate. The only difference is this coalescing will happen among delegates rather than individual voters.