Posted on 04/02/2016 11:42:36 AM PDT by Kaslin
The political prediction markets are becoming unusually volatile, reflecting the increasingly volatile race for the Republican presidential nomination. And they also are foreseeing real potential for a Republican wipe-out in November. And in particular, it appears that Donald Trump is no longer a clearly presumptive frontrunner for the Republican nomination.
But please don’t shoot the messenger. I have no particular allegiance to any of the current or prospective candidates. I am simply commenting on what the prediction markets seem to be saying.
Political prediction markets are similar to both financial markets and sports betting, where people can place their money on what they think will be profitable bets. And the logic behind them is that money talks, and punters are more dispassionate and more coolly calculating when their money is on the line. And collectively, via the so-called wisdom of crowds, the odds established in these markets are generally more accurate than the opinions of media pundits and the like. I am relying here on PredictIt, which is one of several such betting platforms.
Back last summer when he announced, Trump was a very far longshot, trading for a mere two or three cents on the dollar. At the end of February, his stock, so to say, peaked at 83. But in the last few weeks he has crashed, his shares are now changing hands at around 45.
Not unrelated to this, the market’s estimation of a brokered convention i.e. Trump falling short of an outright majority, has risen from the lows 20s a few months ago to 66. Take these two numbers together, and the market is saying there is a two-out-of-three chance Trump falls short of an outright majority of delegates, and if he does, there is a three-out-of-four chance the Republican convention unites behind a different standard bearer.
Meanwhile, Ted Cruz has surged from the low teens to 32 just in the last week. My rough calculation is that better are giving him even odds to the nominee if the convention vote goes to a second round. And back in February the market was only paying 5 for his overall chances.
But Paul Ryan has had an even more impressive bounce, percentage wise. Two months ago he was at a single penny; now he’s at 13. John Kasich has been unchanged at around 10. Even Mitt Romney is in the mix at four cents on the buck.
So it looks more likely than not Cleveland is not going to be a routine affair of crowning a nominee the entire party can rally behind. And who can say what the consequences will be?
Well, unfortunately, things look grim for Republicans in November. The White House, as of today, is looking like 68-32, advantage Democrats, with a 39% chance of a sweep of 370 electoral votes. Control of the Senate is only a bit better, 61-39 with the edge to the Dems. There’s even an 18% chance of Republicans losing the House.
By the way, if your curious, Hillary Clinton is a 83-17 favorite over Bernie Sanders. And as for the ultimate winner of the presidential race, the numbers are Clinton – 61, Trump – 18, Cruz – 14. Oh, and the odds of the Senate approving an Obama Supreme Court nominee are nearly even, 54-46 against.
Now, a few caveats. There are still plenty of primaries on the calendar and either Trump or Cruz or Kasich could show unexpected strength. And the general election is seven months away. A lot can change in politics. And these prediction markets are simply that, markets for predictions, they are far from all-knowing.
But what’s the upshot? Trump is not ensured to close the deal. He will have a plurality of delegates in Cleveland, but quite possibly not the majority he needs. And if he falls short, the Republican establishment is not inclined to nominate him. In this case, Cruz is likely who they will turn to, but Ryan and Kasich are serious contenders as well. But whoever wins the nomination, Republicans are facing an uphill battle this electoral year.
“And if he falls short, the Republican establishment is not inclined to nominate him.”
It’s not up to GOPe, it’s up to the delegates.
They can switch to Trump on the second ballot if they want to.
If Trump is short on the first ballot, he can puck up some more and win in the second or third.
There’s a better chance now of him being the nom than ever.
Oh, no, of course not. Just because Townhall has been bashing Trump about 25 times a day, that couldn't possibly mean anything. So, you're just reporting the "facts"!
WSJ/NBC: Cruz surging, Trump falling
Feb 18 2016
She is always trashing Trump for all of the violence her protestors are causing at Trump rallies. Pretty moronic for someone who uses “Fighting for Us” as her dumbass campaign slogan. What a loon.
The suicidal party. Well let them. Trump has won millions of votes and 20 states. Cruz has won thousands of votes and 9 states. Let them destroy themselves with Cruz. I’ll sit Back drinking a beer shaking my head at the stupidity.
Good to see Townhall pushing doom and gloom along with four more years of Obamanistas.
You really can do better then Billy Kristol’s carping.
Town Hall belongs to the same media group as red state.
Yours:
“If we had only nominated Yeb....”
Mine:
what makes you think “we” still won’t nominate Yeb?
(It appears that the Fix Is In by the GOP-e for Yeb or a clone of Yeb....)
At this point Cruz is in it to deny the presidency to trump and give it to Hillary.
Mr Nuckols,
The people will prove you wrong.
Mr. Trump is bypassing the media, talking heads, and analysts, and taking this message to the people:
We’re mad as h3ll and not gonna take it anymore.
Globalists once again trying to show people dont matter.f these scumbags
Nobody knows anything. Carter was leading Reagan by 25 in April 1980
100% propoganda hit piece to discourage citizens in their oligopoly
“Political Projection Markets”=MSMedia=GOPe=establishment elites...
20 states and millions of voters=The common, everyday, working Americans...
The RNC still owes the Cheap Labor Express an amnesty candidate
with the socialists hiking the “minimum wage” 50% or more
in so many states now,
the GOP-e “cheap labor express” is rendered useless for the GOP-e,
there will just be
1. more and more automation
2. more and more outsourcing of jobs overseas
3. more and more American workers forced onto welfare and charity
4. more and more crime
5. more and more social and political unrest (particularly since its being funded so greatly by soros and other enemies of America)
.... whatever, but the GOP-s has been checkmated, defeated on its “cheap labor express” effort
Cruz surged so much he got into double digits in FL and OH!
Interesting article and pretty much my take on the current state of the race. So I’m not surprised that people are waking up to the fact that Trump is at risk if he fails to reach the 1237 delegate threshold.
I’m also not surprised that the Cruz stock is rising and that Kasich stock is stagnating.
But Paul Ryan on the rise??? Give me a break. I just don’t see 1237 delegates falling for that idiotic idea Reince Priebus or no Reince Priebus.
But Trumpsters and Trumpettes seem to think that Ryan is an automatic nominee if Trump is denied the Holy Grail of Politics. (I guess they believe the nomination is rightfully his as a result of his winning 46% or so of the delegates in the Primary Elections.) And they clearly believe that the GOPe have a lot more influence over the convention delegates than I do.
So I’m still betting it’s either Trump on the first ballot or Cruz on the second. Whoever wins gets my vote in November,
With her record of achievemnent...no way!
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