Posted on 03/31/2016 8:40:43 AM PDT by Hojczyk
“It depends on how he recovers, and how the electorate that’s been pushing him recovers,” said Caddell. “There’s a Quinnipiac poll out this morning that shows him with 56% of the vote in New York. He’s never been higher than 30 in Wisconsin, but he’s going back to his home territory. New Jersey is winner-take-all. California is a big campaign.”
If Trump can’t recover and get the delegates he needs, Caddell thought Senator Cruz would likely find himself discarded after the first ballot at the convention, his usefulness to the Party bosses at an end.
“If they can stop Trump, then Cruz will pick up some more on the second ballot… but I don’t think they’re gonna nominate him,” he explained. “I think they will then move to nominate, to try to nominate an Establishment figure, someone who hasn’t run. I think that will blow the Republican Party up.”
Caddell said the GOP Establishment is “terrified of Trump,” and also opposed to Cruz, because “they are worried about their arrangements being broken up, their power.”
He said these Establishment politicians would “absolutely” rather lose the 2016 election to Hillary Clinton than win with Trump or Cruz. Conversely, the voters who have propelled Trump and Cruz to victory over a platoon of more Establishment-approved candidates are unlikely to “reconcile” themselves to an Establishment pick inserted at the Republican National Convention.
(Excerpt) Read more at breitbart.com ...
That too is a very, very plausible scenario.
???
You can “hope” he’s wrong, but pretty much all the GOPe talking heads have been confirming this for along time. They hate Cruz and will never vote for him. And if you’re a Cruz supporter, why in the World would you even want him to be the guy who loses 50 states to Hillary after Trump supporters walk out on the GOP?
So it's Trump's responsibility to pick delegates that won't vote GOPe after the first ballot.
The same goes for Cruz.
There are some exceptions though, for example there are some unbound delegates and there may be some states where the state GOP picks the delegates for the candidate.
But I think for the most part, it's up to Trump and Cruz to pick delegates who hate the GOPe.
If Cruz does win on the second ballot would you be for the Trump delegates walking out and NOT supporting Cruz in the general election against the corrupt, anti American Marxist, Hillary Rotten Clinton?
I hope this makes it simple enough for even my FReeper Cruz pals to understand:
The “first ballot” is for the voters who participated in the primaries. It’s for those who attended rallies, crafted signs, and made phone calls.
Every ballot after that...is for THEM. No matter how many ballots it takes, they will get THEIR candidate. And you will like it — just shut up and vote.
THEY will choose the designated loser to HRC.
There is only one candidate who has a realistic chance to 1237 (on only the first ballot), and they are even trying to figure out how to take that away. If your candidate is not that one, your vote for him is not part of the solution, it’s part of the problem.
You might end up with a clear conscience, on some level. But you will also end up with:
Wide open, unsecured borders...as far as the eye can see.
No wall. Not now or ever.
TPP for now, and only God know what trade deal to follow (just in case there is a little bit of meat left on America’s bones for them to pick)
Obamacare enshrined in perpetuity, made worse once the costs and job losses become obvious, and they need to “fix” it.
Unlimited Muslim immigration from the 3rd world with no vetting. Creeping Sharia Law once the numbers increase. No one to stop the infiltration of our gov’t via the Muslim Brotherhood (which started under W, btw)
Since he cannot win on the first ballot, every delegate from here on out that is awarded to the 2nd or 3rd place finishers will deliver the results (and more) that I just stated.
The only thing is, that state law controls how they vote on the first ballot...you can’t go rogue if you’re a delegate.
On the first ballot only. After that.........chaos.
And if you’re a Trump supporter, why in the World would you even want him to be the guy who loses 50 states to Hillary after [some, but enough] Cruz supporters walk out on the GOP?
Back atcha.
At least I and most Cruz supporters will vote Trump if it comes to that, rather that have Hillary appointing federal judges who sit for 30+ years. As you admit, or perhaps boast, most Trump supporters appear unwilling to back Cruz even if he wins fair and square under the pre-convention rules.
I ask only partially jokingly. The establishment of both parties isn't going to tolerate any real change.
Unless you've got someone who will come swinging a baseball bat, we're really squabbling over fringe issues.
Here the thing... who the threat to the DC establishments power?
they’re all in to destroy Trump... like Caddell is saying they’d rather have Hillary win then Trump
so if Cruz is equivalent threat to them then they’ll follow equivalent measures to take that threat out.. so yeah then swap in Ryan in a heartbeat if they can if Cruz is any kind of actual threat
Really what I’m watching right now is as much how the establishment types are reacting to the two candidates vs what the candidates themselves are doing
the GOPe in alignment with the mainstream media are all going crazy about Trump to try and destroy him
Far more than Cruz
It just reinforces my belief the Trump is the choice to take them down
there’s just too much money on the table with cheap labor and one sided trade they’ve got to destroy anybody that threatens that
Bing! Cruz is an unwitting accomplice for the GOPe. His ego has him believing they'll support him on the 2nd or later balloting, if it gets that far.
Pat has been one of the best and most honest analysts for decades
Paul Ryan??? You’ve got to be kidding. In 2012, he lost a debate to Joe Biden—which would be like the Alabama Crimson Tide losing a football game to the Whittier College Poets.
Funny Thing Cruz supporters even Rush Limbaugh have their head in the Sand
That’s exactly what it is. The day cruz got in bed with Romney before Utah is the day he lost his credibility.
There is no cure for Trump, so they are treating the symptoms. Trump is infecting the number of delegates, so engineer them away from Trump. Trump is dominating the media, so work with the media to discredit him, set up gotcha questions. Engineer a complete and utter character assassination exploiting Trump's unpolished presentation that does not fit the GOPe's failed playbook.
Just like the common cold, all of this will take time to resolve - one way or the other.
The GOP is dead, the corpse is rotting, yet the GOPe is failing the sniff test.
Wake up, WI.
The actual delegates, the 2473 delegates, will be a VERY conservative group. I know this will upset the Trump Supporters, by my guess is 75% will be much in line with Cruz ideologically. Cruz is their perfect candidate. And I include myself in that.
There is NO WAY these people, who have a chance to nominate Cruz, who is beating or close to beating Hillary in most polls, will go to Ryan or Bush on the second ballot. NO WAY.
Here is my anecdotal evidence
If you read my posts I have detailed description of what happened in Iowa in 1996. Will happen again this year.
The Arizona GOP party head, after Trump won all 58 delegates, was on TV saying all the delegates going to National convention would be much more aligned with Cruz than Trump, and if a second ballot happened, Cruz would get a lot of the votes
TN delegates have agreement they only vote Trump or Cruz
TX will ALL be sympathetic to Cruz
LA you already know about that
CO is going to be Cruz delegates, and these are hard core Cruz guys
IL the candidates picked the ballot
SC said it looks like 40-45 of the 50 Trump Delegates will be Cruz supporters
Marco Rubio is holding on to his delegates to screw Trump, and help Cruz.
I still maintain if this goes second ballot Cruz wins.
Oh and one more thing the delegates adopt the rules. I still believe the rule of winning 8 states will be in effect. One area Trump and Cruz agree. If the RNC comes with rules saying anyone is eligible, that will be voted down by the delegates.
You don’t understand.
The people (”us guys”, as we used to say as kids) only get ONE round of voting — the first. After that, we get NO say. We get the guaranteed loser to HRC and all of her policies (Obama’s policies) are going to be the law of the land. And her SCOTUS choices will ensure that.
If the thing were reversed, and Cruz had the 700 delegates, and DJT had north of 400, you damn well bet I’d vote for Cruz if my state were coming up next. Especially if I knew that DJT was being used as a pawn for the GOPe (Mitt, I’m looking at you. You told us as much..you schmuck!)
Cruz is not going to win 85% of the remaining delegates under any scenario. Math is your friend.
From here on out, the choice for Cruzers are:
DJT vs Mitt & Paul (again)
DJT vs Jeb
DJT vs Lindsey
Cruzers, you get your choice in the primary, not the General. Both of the frontrunners in our party better figure out how to get along....and fast, IMO.
(and for the record, if Cruz managed to win fair and square under the pre-convention rules, I’d have to vote for him. Despite some of the activities his campaign has done, they are nothing compared to what the Dems will do to us.)
Indeed. I heard that 57% of the delegates are free to vote for whoever they like after the 1st ballot.
I believe that. And I think a lot of Trump voters are going to be thinking Cruz and few thinking Kasich. But some Cruz delegates are going to be thinking Trump.
What I don't believe is that Reince Priebus and Company are going to dictate how your chaos play out. It will be organized via a bunch of back room deals conducted by Trump and Cruz.
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