Posted on 03/31/2016 7:38:12 AM PDT by NYRepublican72
A new Public Policy Polling survey in Wisconsin, conducted on behalf of VoteVets Action Fund, finds Bernie Sanders as the favorite in the state’s Democratic primary. Sanders leads Hillary Clinton 49-43, with 8% of voters still undecided. ...
The Republican race is close, with Ted Cruz at 38% to 37% for Donald Trump and 17% for John Kasich. There are indications within the numbers that Cruz could win a wider victory though. In a head to head match up with Trump he leads 49/41. That’s because Kasich voters prefer him over Trump by a 51/19 spread. Only 63% of Kasich voters say they’re definitely going to vote for him (Cruz and Trump are both over 80% on that metric), so if his supporters end up moving to one of the top two it could mean a wider Cruz victory.
GOP voters in Wisconsin have positive views of both Kasich (52/30) and Cruz (50/36). Trump is on negative ground, with only 45% of voters seeing him favorably to 48% who have an unfavorable opinion of him. In an unusual twist Cruz voters (83%) are more solidly committed to their candidate than Trump voters (81%) are. This is the first poll we’ve ever done where we didn’t Trump with the most locked in base of support. Cruz is being fueled by a 53/32 advantage among voters who identify themselves as ‘very conservative.’ Cruz also leads with women (39/32) by a margin wide enough to overcome the one Trump has with men (40/36).
Ron Johnson continues to be in deep trouble for reelection. Only 35% of voters approve of him to 42% who disapprove, and he trails Russ Feingold 46/39 in a head to head match up.
(Excerpt) Read more at publicpolicypolling.com ...
| Contest | ||
| Pop Vote |
Del | |
| CD1 | 3 | |
| CD2 | 3 | |
| CD3 | 3 | |
| CD4 | 3 | |
| CD5 | 3 | |
| CD6 | 3 | |
| CD7 | 3 | |
| CD8 | 3 | |
| Statewide | 18 | |
| Total Delegates |
42 | |
Where’s the 10 pt lead? Always thought that was fake.
Any poll... and I mean this... ANY poll that shows anyone winning WI by double digits is an outlier. Whoever wins WI it will be by single digits, and if I had a surprise story to expect out of WI, it would be that Kasich actually outperforms his polls.
MY experiences in Wisconsin would point to, especially after the events of the last two weeks, that a good number of Wisconsin voters are likely to decide, they aren’t going to vote for either of the “buffoons” and vote for Kasich.
The last week or two have just been shake your head moonbat crazy for both Trump and Cruz especially for a more casual observer. I would not be remotely surprised to see Kasich outperform his polling after the last few weeks.
We will find out in a few days.
Wisconsin allocates like MO... because of this model, it is quite possible to win or lose by small margins but wind up with one candidate dominating the delegate count.
WI is going to be a narrow win for someone, the poll yesterday showing a 10 point lead for Cruz is laughable to me. Cruz may win, but no way ANYONE is taking WI by double digits.
The more interesting contest is the next one... will Trump stay above 50% in NY... if he does, he gets all 95 delegates there. He may get all 95 anyway... I’m hard pressed to see a district he’s likely to lose, even if he doesn’t cross 50% overall.
If polls in Wisconsin are to be believed Cruz has went up 10 points since the sex scandal allegations came out. No way in 40 hells.
The markette poll is an insane outlier, anyone taking that one at face value is going to wind up with egg on their face. The general trend of polling has been toward Cruz, and as I have said elsewhere if there were states left on the board that Cruz could pull an upset, WI is the most likely place... with IN and then perhaps one of the New England states surprising, but that’s it.
WI will be close, the events of the last few weeks have been horrible for Cruz and Trump IMHO.... which is why I really think the surprise on Tuesday will likely be Kasich outperforming his polling... as I would expect a good bit of votes to decide not to vote for either of them after all the self inflicted wounds Cruz and Trump have gotten recently.
Frankly I still think Trump holds the slight edge, while most polling shows it the other way... but whichever one wins, it don’t believe it will be anywhere near a 10 point victory.
Correct. Although MO was a little more heavy on the CD tally. They added two of the statewide delegates to each CD for five total and awarded less for the statewide total.
A narrow win is more likely to get the winner most of the delegates in WI than MO.
I had forgotten about Arizona...you are absolutely right!
BTW, did you hear Donald Trump went to the latina ladies restaurant (the one being persecuted for supporting Trump) and his campaign evidently got the word out “come have lunch on me and meet me” type thing...there were hundreds who showed up. He told the lady he will make sure she does not suffer for supporting him. What a great man!
More polls from Wisconsin.
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