Posted on 03/30/2016 2:35:54 PM PDT by Kaslin
Frontrunner Donald Trump has become more unpopular since the start of primaries in February, and now the convention calendar turns to more moderate-to-liberal states as the contest draws near completion. Will Trump's decreasing popularity cost him the 1,237 delegates he needs to win the nomination outright?
In January, the Huffington Post Pollster average of recent polls found that only 37 percent of voters view The Donald favorably, while 57 percent view him unfavorably. This was bad enough, but the most recent numbers (from Tuesday, March 29) show an even less popular frontrunner. Only 31.6 percent have a positive image of the man, while 63.3 percent dislike him. The gap has risen from negative 20 points to negative 31.7 points.
While Hillary Clinton and Ted Cruz are also viewed unfavorably, their numbers are nowhere near this bad. Only John Kasich and Bernie Sanders have positive approval ratings, and fewer Democrats and Republicans turn out to vote for them.
In the prediction market PredictWise, the likelihood that one GOP candidate will win a majority of the delegates has dropped from 50 percent to 38 percent. The odds that the contention goes into at least a second ballot have increased from 42 percent to 55 percent, even while the odds of Trump's nomination remain high, dropping from 78 percent to 76 percent.
As the Republican primary nears its end, the states still to vote take a more liberal turn. In April, Wisconsin, New York, Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania, and Rhode Island vote. All of these states favored Barack Obama in 2012. In some of these states, the more moderate Kasich leads the conservative stalwart Cruz. Yet in one, Cruz has pulled ahead of Trump.
A recent poll has pushed up Ted Cruz's average in Wisconsin, and he now leads Trump 33.0 percent to 32.3 percent in the RealClearPolitics average. This Cruz jump may be attributable, in part, to the endorsement of Governor Scott Walker. Trump leads strongly in his home state of New York, with 53.0 percent to Kasich's 14.3 percent and Cruz's 13.0 percent. Kasich also beats Cruz in Pennsylvania, where Trump leads with 34.5 percent to Kasich's 20.0 percent and Cruz's 18.5 percent.
Could Kasich's presence keep Cruz from taking delegates away from Trump? Will Trump's decreasing popularity cost him in the next three months? All three of the candidates have recently backed away from their pledge to support whichever candidate wins the nomination. The fracturing of the Republican Party continues apace, as Trump's popularity falls, even as he still leads in the polls for many upcoming states.
Cruz thinks he will win the race, even while he badly trails Trump in the delegate count, with 463 delegates to Trump's 736. Both Cruz and Kasich are also courting delegates to the July Republican National Convention in Cleveland, even as Trump has hired his own convention muscle, with close ties to Putin's Ukrainian puppet, Viktor Yanukovych. If Trump falls short of 1,237 delegates, we'll be in for one big show.
You got Freepmail
Huffpost? REALLY?/s
Thanks for your mail, and thanks for your comments.
I completely understand, and I am very supportive of everything you do, and everything you said.
100%. I mean that.
BULL! He has the only ones who count on his side. Sessions, and others like Hunter,jr. Seems all the long line of Cruz supporters are the wrong kind. Trump has all the wrong kind as enemies.
Thanks
IT WOULD BE POETIC JUSTICE IF NEW YORK VALUES CRUZ COMMENT DECIDED HIS FATE?
IF TRUMP WINS WISCONSIN
NEW YORK 99 DELEGATES CAN KICK CRUZ OFF THE CURB INTO A SEWER DRAIN.
Does the Source say Huffington Post? No it does not and by the way if trump is not the nominee will you vote for the nominee in the general election? I will vote for Trump provided he is the nominee because I always vote for the republican nominee
Was I stating or implying otherwise?
Go CRUZ! Beat Trump!
“Will Trump’s decreasing popularity cost him the 1,237 delegates he needs to win the nomination outright?”
God willing! This man is a maniac.
Go watch some Sumo wrestling or something.
We know the sweep of his thinking and his vision. So what’s the point of parsing every single word and phrase from a single interview and use that to diminish support? Could also be he’s reaching out beyond the party and he really has to. We know where he is on education and healthcare. He’s said so again and again, so that one comment means really nothing.
“Mr. Trump has held up remarkably well considering the ‘Palin’ treatment he’s received 24/7 by big media, large corporations, and his own Party.”
Exactly. If Trump gets even close to winning the nomination after how he’s been attacked from all sides, it will be a miracle.
Well, I hope Trump wins Wisconsin and enough delegates to get it on the first ballot because a brokered convention means a Hillary presidency. Cruz has too steep a hill to climb to get there.
If it’s brokered, they won’t pick either Trump or Cruz, probably Kasich. That person will lose to Hillary, this primary has been too divisive already, almost to the point of being irreparable.
The bottom line: Love or hate Trump, if he isn’t the nominee Hillary will be our next POTUS, I have absolutely no doubt about that. If by some miracle she is indicted and drops out, Sanders will be next POTUS or some other commie punk the treason party picks. But she isn’t getting indicted. If they had any intention to, they would have done it by now before she becomes the nominee. So everyone who is bashing Trump, all you’re doing is welcoming Hillary. There is not a chance in hell Cruz can beat her and you know it
I do NOT know where he is on education and healthcare. Can you enlighten me?
He’s always on an anti Trump crusade. Its not new.
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