Posted on 03/30/2016 2:35:54 PM PDT by Kaslin
Frontrunner Donald Trump has become more unpopular since the start of primaries in February, and now the convention calendar turns to more moderate-to-liberal states as the contest draws near completion. Will Trump's decreasing popularity cost him the 1,237 delegates he needs to win the nomination outright?
In January, the Huffington Post Pollster average of recent polls found that only 37 percent of voters view The Donald favorably, while 57 percent view him unfavorably. This was bad enough, but the most recent numbers (from Tuesday, March 29) show an even less popular frontrunner. Only 31.6 percent have a positive image of the man, while 63.3 percent dislike him. The gap has risen from negative 20 points to negative 31.7 points.
While Hillary Clinton and Ted Cruz are also viewed unfavorably, their numbers are nowhere near this bad. Only John Kasich and Bernie Sanders have positive approval ratings, and fewer Democrats and Republicans turn out to vote for them.
In the prediction market PredictWise, the likelihood that one GOP candidate will win a majority of the delegates has dropped from 50 percent to 38 percent. The odds that the contention goes into at least a second ballot have increased from 42 percent to 55 percent, even while the odds of Trump's nomination remain high, dropping from 78 percent to 76 percent.
As the Republican primary nears its end, the states still to vote take a more liberal turn. In April, Wisconsin, New York, Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania, and Rhode Island vote. All of these states favored Barack Obama in 2012. In some of these states, the more moderate Kasich leads the conservative stalwart Cruz. Yet in one, Cruz has pulled ahead of Trump.
A recent poll has pushed up Ted Cruz's average in Wisconsin, and he now leads Trump 33.0 percent to 32.3 percent in the RealClearPolitics average. This Cruz jump may be attributable, in part, to the endorsement of Governor Scott Walker. Trump leads strongly in his home state of New York, with 53.0 percent to Kasich's 14.3 percent and Cruz's 13.0 percent. Kasich also beats Cruz in Pennsylvania, where Trump leads with 34.5 percent to Kasich's 20.0 percent and Cruz's 18.5 percent.
Could Kasich's presence keep Cruz from taking delegates away from Trump? Will Trump's decreasing popularity cost him in the next three months? All three of the candidates have recently backed away from their pledge to support whichever candidate wins the nomination. The fracturing of the Republican Party continues apace, as Trump's popularity falls, even as he still leads in the polls for many upcoming states.
Cruz thinks he will win the race, even while he badly trails Trump in the delegate count, with 463 delegates to Trump's 736. Both Cruz and Kasich are also courting delegates to the July Republican National Convention in Cleveland, even as Trump has hired his own convention muscle, with close ties to Putin's Ukrainian puppet, Viktor Yanukovych. If Trump falls short of 1,237 delegates, we'll be in for one big show.
Hey I can take everything but the “noob” from your post.
I’ve been a FReeper since 2005.
Just posting on my current handle, because I am away from a secure connection at the moment.
Ordinary handle is “Cringing Negativism Network”.
But I did not (completely) appreciate the “tough shitski”.
We really don’t need to devolve to such language, even if we’re all fired up with the latest Cruz kerfluffle.
Let ME ask the questions, believe me you will have the opposite result. Huffington Post, give me a break.
The majority of Republican insiders say The Donald has hit his ceiling, while gleeful Democrats say he’s not going anywhere.
By Katie Glueck 07/24/15 05:08 AM EDT
Not “beat” but HUMILIATED. Never seen anything like it.
Among that mess of words there is little or no sense.
There is NO way Trump would be putting himself through this if he were not DEADLY serious.
Now it is true he never expected it to be so easy to crush the Surrender First, Last and Always leaders of the GOP.
Boy, has he shown the Emperor has No Clothes (or sense or guts, for that matter.)
I thought HuffPuff wasn’t going to cover Trump? Weak!
Any irony that the more liberal Trump as compared to Cruz is expected to do poorly in moderate/liberal states.
Trumps alleged diminishing popularity might have something more to do with comments such as those he made last night in the Anderson Pooper townhall - when asked what three priorities the federal government should have he answered security (correctly), education and healthcare (incorrectly). It’s hard to know where he’s coming from anymore.
I don’t but it, nope. I am out in Liberal Lala Land of Los Angeles, and the Working Class UNION and Working Class Democrats support Trump in a BIG WAY, they are just quiet about it.
Bullcrap Sheepdip
Poll Date Sample
Trump
Cruz
Kasich
Spread
PPP (D) 3/24 - 3/26 505 LV 42 32 22 Trump +10
Quinnipiac 3/16 - 3/21 652 RV 43 29 16 Trump +14
And Reuters tracking poll Trump + 10 percent over Cruz
Cruzbots wishful thinking isn’t thinking.
The next 168 votes anyone gets Cruz is eliminated from winning.
Sorry, this is the fact.
....”It’s hard to know where Trumps coming from anymore”....
I believe he wants out and will only continue playing this role until the way is cleared for him to do so. The question will be if or not he throws the election to Hillary or to our side.
Cruz WILL NEVER be the President, GOP-e will dump him faster than Trump!!! Cruz is a FOOL to have jumped in bed with these BASTARDS!!! he as now lost the Trump supporter vote!!!
Looks like 84% in NY don’t want Ted Cruz.
these are all lies
I agree. Whether you love or hate Trump, one good result of his run is that it’s brought people into the political fold who otherwise would be uninterested. I myself, for example, have never voted in a primary and never commented on any websites even though I’ve read them for years. The only reason I have changed is because Trumps overall message of what’s wrong with the country has resonated with me, and any others.
If you noticed the article is not from the Huff and Puff post, it’s only a link
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