I thought your entire post was spot on.
If it isn't clear to Trump supporters by now I doubt it ever will be that he lacks the skill to repair his image with women and pro-lifers.
It should also be clear that Cruz is a much better tactician than he is being given credit for. He's been in politics long enough that he avoids most "minefields" and knows what he believes and why those beliefs are superior to those of the left.
His tactics are why he's through after this election. This is his last gambit, especially when he doesn't get the nomination. He has burned every bridge in the Senate and has no sway there at all. That's not good. Even if he's re-elected in TX, he'll just be a conservative Bernie Sanders--constantly ranting and raving, never accomplishing anything and being shrugged off by all but a committed few.