I think it is possible. You said it was a fantasy. My point was that Hitlery is not Obama, minorities are not motivated, and the 5% or more voter fraud in the liberal bastions of Madison & Milwaukee will be curtailed by Photo ID.
That's not an answer. You think Cruz wins Wisconsin against Hillary?
I think it is possible. You said it was a fantasy. My point was that Hitlery is not Obama, minorities are not motivated, and the 5% or more voter fraud in the liberal bastions of Madison & Milwaukee will be curtailed by Photo ID.
Okay, it is true that there is a possibility. Elections do tend to turn on unforeseen and unpredictable events. And there is some truth that Peak Obama passed in 2008, and 2012 was a sliiiiight improvement for Romney over McCain.
I'll have to look for it but last summer/fall we ran the numbers on the black vote and trends and compared to Trump who is getting double Romney numbers.
This goes to a key difference between Trump and Cruz. Trump is positioned to cash in on the most valuable voter of all, direct (D)ummycrat crossovers ( those who definitely voted last election for Dumbo ). Such voters are 2x as valuable as you and I because we produce the expected (R)+1 but crossovers produce (D)-1 (R)+1 for net 2. This is how you quickly close the gap and win your 52-48 56-44 purple states ( and quite possibly in the case of Trump put lighter "blue" states like NH, OR, WA within striking distance ).
Now the recently less enthusiastic black vote could stay home or switchover, this is a big deal. My educated guess is they stay home for Ted and hopefully switchover for Trump who is assembling an impressive and unprecedentedly large team of black endorsers. I'll pull these together in a future post but it is a safe bet they will make a mark. I only wish Alan Keyes didn't box himself into the GOPe defender box this cycle. Ah well.
About Wisconsin. My quick pick is it goes "blue" with either candidate most likely, but with the caveat of Trump possibly carrying Michigan and dragging Wisconsin along for the ride, this is because I suspect he will be up your way very often if he gets the nomination. Michigan is vital and is close to flipping and for him it is mere minutes away as the crow 757 flies. Cruz, though? In an on-year election which Scott Walker probably couldn't even win, I seriously doubt it. I'll reduce the hyperbole from "fantasy" to "extremely unlikely". IMHO of course.
( At least you got it better than my state of NY. Madison may be a liberal cesspool but can't hold a candle to my NYC and its 85-15 tendencies. Few places can top it. )
You might not have seen this ...
Meet Wisconsin’s First Pro-Trump State Legislator
He's up in the Northwest and says it is Trump country amazingly. My friends in Eau Claire told me they got killed in the 2008 crisis ( worked in an extremely high tech industry ) and they also are seeing Trump signs. Further down my guess is Madison will go lesser evil and lean slightly either Kasich or Trump. The Burbs probably Cruz as has been the pattern. Milwaukee and Green Bay will be key decider's and I have no clue. It should be very interesting indeed next Tuesday. Kasich is definitely the wildcard, and likely the fly in Cruz's ointment.
What are your predictions if any, for Madison, Milwaukee, Green Bay and Eau Claire? No bet or anything, just curious for data points from locals. Oh, and I was also wondering if Minnesota has bled in and corrupted Wisconsin the way that VT and MA has infected NH.