The Black Swan Theory ...
The black swan theory or theory of black swan events is a metaphor that describes an event that comes as a surprise, has a major effect, and is often inappropriately rationalized after the fact with the benefit of hindsight.
Black swan events were discussed by Nassim Nicholas Taleb in his 2001 book Fooled By Randomness, which concerned financial events. His 2007 book The Black Swan extended the metaphor to events outside of financial markets. Taleb regards almost all major scientific discoveries, historical events, and artistic accomplishments as “black swans”;undirected and unpredicted. He gives the rise of the Internet, the personal computer, World War I, dissolution of the Soviet Union, and the September 2001 attacks as examples of black swan events.
“What we call here a Black Swan (and capitalize it) is an event with the following three attributes.
First, it is an outlier, as it lies outside the realm of regular expectations, because nothing in the past can convincingly point to its possibility.
Second, it carries an extreme ‘impact’.
Third, in spite of its outlier status, human nature makes us concoct explanations for its occurrence after the fact, making it explainable and predictable.
I stop and summarize the triplet: rarity, extreme ‘impact’, and retrospective (though not prospective) predictability. A small number of Black Swans explains almost everything in our world, from the success of ideas and religions, to the dynamics of historical events, to elements of our own personal lives”.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_swan_theory
Second...this has been previously published as The Structure of Scientific Revolutions -
The Structure of Scientific Revolutions (1962; second edition 1970) is a book about the history of science by philosopher Thomas S. Kuhn. Its publication was a ... History - Synopsis - Kuhn's opinion on scientific ... - Influence
What we have here is a Paradigm Shift.
“A small number of Black Swans explains almost everything in our world,”
Woodja say that : The convergence of Grove,Gates and Greenspan back in he 90s constitutes a Swan Event?
What they brought on back then is sumtin every damn congresscritter and every BS politician tries to take credit for...Some Damn Good Times !