Posted on 03/21/2016 12:47:25 PM PDT by Cincinatus' Wife
Ted Cruz beats Hillary Clinton nationally in recent polls, though narrowly, and in state-by-state matchups performs better than the current front-runner for the Republican nomination. Predictably, Cruz wallops Clinton in Utah, a reliably Republican state. But — this is news — both Clinton and Sanders win there when they’re matched against Trump, according to a Deseret News/KSL poll conducted March 8–15. The best evidence we have here in March, as candidates fight for the nomination, is that Trump at the top of the ticket would remove Utah from the “solid Republican” column and put it and its six electoral votes into play. In the most recent poll of how voters in neighboring Arizona would vote in November, Cruz wins its eleven electoral votes by six percentage points; Trump and Clinton tie.
And so on across the map. Trump supporters say that he would redraw it by putting putting into play East Coast and Midwestern states that have been solidly Democratic for ages, but so far the evidence is that he would redraw it in favor of Democrats. Cruz performs better against Clinton in the most recent polls in Pennsylvania and Florida. Ohio? Cruz over Clinton by two points; Clinton over Trump by six. In his home state of New York, Clinton crushes Trump — less severely than she does Cruz, but in both cases her double-digit margins are so large that any plan for the Republicans to capture the state’s 29 electoral votes would appear quixotic and ill advised if the party wanted to spend its resources to maximum effect.
Some Trump supporters and neutral observers hypothesize that he would draw new white working-class voters to the Republican party. The evidence is that he would alienate more voters than he would attract. Pro-Trump friends and acquaintances of mine are unfazed by that information: The polls are always wrong, they say breezily. And people hate Clinton, they add, never mind that people hate Trump more. His unfavorable ratings are worse than hers and in fact record-breaking.
A vote for Trump in the primaries is a vote for Clinton in November, and probably for Democrats in congressional races as well. Most of his supporters seem not to care. They hate both parties, but at the moment the Republican one is nearer, like someone they’ve been trying to be friends with but is always dissing them. They relish the prospect of cutting him down to size. They’re enjoying the cathartic experience now, like the New Leftists who, gathering in Grant Park in Chicago in the summer of 1968, vented their disdain for the Democratic-party establishment of the day. It was, for all practical purposes, the most consequential Nixon rally of the campaign season.
Cruz can’t win the south. We just saw it.
Was this written before or after the Glenn Beck anointing priest speech?
Cruz has become the establishment’s candidate.
Not the profile of a “conservative”.
Not any more.
Difficult to understand how Mr. 17% wins swing states of FL and OH in November. But perhaps Team Cruz has a different electoral path to victory? Someday it will be revealed to us.
You saw the south with 4 or more candidates. One on one with a dem is a different story.
Consider the source.
Math is lost on some folks.
Seriously!
The polls told us Trump was done at 20%
He was done at 30%.
He was done at 40%.
He is now done cresting 50%.
And now he is done because the polls tell us he cannot win against Hillary. Dream on!
“Cruz can’t win the south.”
Any Republican takes the south. Presidential elections don’t hinge on the south.
Frankly he’s the only Gope candidate running. So seriously give it a rest.
#2 You clowns have to STILL keep citing these absurd head-to-head polls for a fall election way back in the spring, as some unassailable marker of whom should be the nominee while having to continuously have previous head-to-head polls from previous elections that absolutely did not mirror the final result.
For some bizarre reason that I guess can be found in Mormon prophecy, you think the race is a static thing whereas you can poll in March, and BOOM, that is the election right there?
#3 Let’s not forget the string of previous talking points that you guys beat into the ground to go along with your new UT poll toy:
Momentum from Iowa favors Cruz
South Carolina favors Cruz
Southern evangelicals favor Cruz
SEC primaries favor Cruz
Debates favor Cruz
If we can just have closed primaries, then THAT will favor Cruz
Rubio will definitely take down Trump, and then Cruz will romp!
Whomever wants to win will have to become this site’s definition of an ‘establishment candidate’. There is no winning the general election without some level of support from the party.
It also got us McCain and Romney, and look how well that turned out. The "Most Conservative Candidate Who Is Electable" generally isn't.
Exactly right. Cruz is toast on the west coast, the northeast and the upper mid-wet.
Cruz Nomination = President Clinton.
National polls are totally worthless. Cruz has already shown he cannot beat Trump in any swing state ... he would loose badly to Hillary.
So the guy that lost several key states in 3rd place, will magically garner the excitement to win against Hillary.
Why? Because reasons?
Dont forget that Bill won southern states in 92 and 96. Dont act like Hillary cant either because Cruz can talk with a country twang and say Jesus a bunch of times.
I heard on FR that Ted was “wildly popular” in California.
That he was going to win the primary AND the Nov election there.
Hillary will be in jail. And keep insulting people over their religion. That always works well winning converts. Maybe call him a liar a few hundred times too.
You mean the National Review that hates white, middle class Americans? No thanks ...Ill pass.
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