Could Ted Cruz Win?

The New York Times ^ | The March 25, 2016 Issue | Ross Douthat

[2ndDivisionVet]

No, I don't think he will -- not the nomination, not the presidency. But since that's what just about everyone thinks, let's play around a little and try to imagine how Cruz could at least imitate Barry Goldwater and become the G.O.P. nominee. Here's The Federalist's Ben Domenech with three reasons why the conventional wisdom on Cruz might be wrong:

First: Ted Cruz matches up with the activist base better than any other significant candidate in a long time. I don't think people outside of that base really understand how powerful Cruz's appeal is to the populist energized conservative voter, which is of course just a faction of the right, but is a sizable faction ... And he doesn't just match up with them on policy, he matches up with their brashness, their yearning for someone who loves the taste of blood in his mouth ...

Second: To the degree that this is a nomination battle about who has done the most to fight the Obama administration about two key issues - amnesty and Obamacare - Ted Cruz can claim that mantle and beat his opponents over the head with their stances on these topics. We underestimate how going soft on both of these issues is going to play in the GOP primary this cycle, particularly in the early going. As I've noted before, most of the candidates this time around are in roughly the same position on immigration: either full throatedly in favor of reform or tepidly in favor of it. But there is no indication that the position of the party base is at all moderated compared to 2012, and Obama's approach to executive amnesty has made the issue all the more toxic. Cruz can argue that his only fault is boldness....

[Trumpinator]

this is one year ago.

[cookcounty]

"Where will the Rubio delegates go? Or Carson’s?"

I'm a Rubio delegate to my (Colorado) State Convention. I didn't think one second about going to Trump. There were two people standing for election in my precinct for Carson. They both stood up and prefaced their one-minute speeches by saying "First of all, I'm 'Anybody but Trump.'" and then said they were for Carson, ---they must be terribly disappointed with the Doc. Neither got elected to the higher assemblies.

All the delegates elected from my precinct were for Cruz (except for me, but now I'm for him too). Pretty much the same in nearby precincts.

How could Trump win my support? Step One: Donald, get on your knees on 5th Avenue and beg forgiveness for putting your company before your country and giving money and comfort to Harry Reid and Nancy Pelosi.

[Mariner]

"First: Ted Cruz matches up with the activist base better than any other significant candidate in a long time."

Ross is a bit behind the times.

The Republican Party has a new base, and has discarded the old.

[CPT Clay]

Really? Winner Take all. Think about it.

[Mariner]

"The delegates are still there, uncommitted"

And he would need to win 87% of those outstanding, outright.

He would need to win California, PA and NY to start.

Would you bet money that he would win any of the 3?

How about WA or OR?

[mmichaels1970]

If the question is whether he could win the general, I think he could. He or Trump could.

Agreed. In fact, I think any of the major candidates could have won except Bush. Graham would lose too, but he was never a major candidate.

[cookcounty]

There may be an open convention or a contested convention, there will not be a "brokered convention." That was in the old days when the State Chairmen controlled and could order delegates to vote a certain way. Nowadays, after the first ballot (in a few cases, 2nd or third), the delegates are free to let their conscience be their guide.

With all the animosity Trump has engendered, he will have the hardest time garnering new delegates. You can only ridicule their favorite guy a half dozen times before they will harden and turn away in disgust. "Hostility," which Donald claims to be a master of, works to get attention, it doesn't help you when you've made their favorite guy a repeated continuous target of junior high hostility.

[Trumpinator]

You entered the wrong issue date.

Actual issue date = MARCH 25, 2015 11:12 AM

[BagCamAddict]

I’m not trying to argue with you, I’m just clarifying what I was trying to say:

You described your daughters as “mildly Conservative.” Personally, I don’t consider that to be “Moderate.”

To me, a Moderate is someone who considers themselves to be Moderate, or Independent. Not someone who considers themselves to be Conservative, or who would be described as Conservative to any degree, whether it be mildly or majorly.

I’m talking about fence-sitters. People who register as Independents. People who don’t vote in Primaries at all because they don’t lean far enough Left OR Right. They don’t have a horse in the race. Those are people that I am calling Moderate/Independent.

From your description, your daughters would be in the Conservative camp. And certainly there is a portion of the Conservative camp that prefers Cruz.

And of course the entire Left hates Trump. So the way I see it, in gross generalizations: 33% Left = hate Trump and will never vote Trump. 33% Right = will vote for whomever is the Republican nominee. And 33% Moderate = COULD vote for Trump, but would never vote for Cruz. Again, these are gross generalizations, and just my opinion.

[MaxistheBest]

“How could Trump win my support?”

I fully understand why he gave to Pelosi and Reid. He is a real estate developer and has serious high end properties in both areas controlled by the two. I would say that nobody would stand a prayer of getting a development through without “greasing the skids” of these two politicians. They own and control San Francisco and Vegas respectively. Trump is a developer, that is what he does, and he does what he has to do to grow the company.

I spent 35 years in Boston. My father and I were in commercial rehab. Nothing, and I mean nothing, happened until you payed the man. It was that or you went hungry. That’s life...it is what it is.

[datura]

Nice try Goebbels. Cruz thanked Romney rather heartily for his endorsement.

Teddy is Mitt’s little b_tch now. Because he’s always been establishment.

The mask just keeps coming off, and at this point if you’re supporting Cruz you’ve sided with Romney. Cruz has no viable path to the nomination.

[rrrod]

The states left are not friendly to Cruz. Numerically its possible but there is no chance he takes NJ, NY, AZ, CA, PA, MA and so on.

[cookcounty]

I accept your definition, but the fact remains, “moderates,” middle-of-the roaders, the indecisive ones, have an aversion to hostility in politics, which is what Donald has taken to a whole new level. They worry about him being an embryonic dictator especially as they see his principles are in constant flux, changeable in the extreme, often taking contradicting positions in the same debate. The only constant is the bombast and personal attacks, he is truly a most unusual marvel in that category.

Some say that one-on-one he is charming and personable, I have no idea, I have only seen his stage presence, which is an entertaining abomination. He looks like the poster boy for snotty rich kids who grew up in daddy’s limousine and thinks of anyone who disagrees as subhuman. I would say “maybe it’s just me,” but it isn’t. It’s lots and lots of folks from every spectrum, especially from the squishy middle.

[BagCamAddict]

I can see what you’re saying.

I also see lots of people in my broad work field who didn’t previously “like” Trump who have been convinced by the Media and by the anti-Trump crowd to vote for Trump. So many people are sick of being told who to vote for, that the more they are told not to vote for Trump, the more they want to vote for Trump. I have seen it happen with moderates and conservatives. I haven’t seen it happen with liberals yet, but I only know one liberal. ;-)

[cookcounty]

So what did he get from Pelosi and Reid? A couple of unpleasant wedding guests?

Oh, and now Donald is the New Man, suddenly converted in the middle of the night at the age of 63 or whatever to ethical politics. Donald, you are good for laughs, I’ll hand you that.

[zeestephen]

The Ross Douthat column posted here is almost a year old.

[MaxistheBest]

I don’t know...maybe issue free zoning:

http://www.trump.com/real-estate-portfolio/los-angele/trump-estates/

http://www.trump.com/real-estate-portfolio/las-vega/trump-tower/

http://www.trump.com/real-estate-portfolio/california/555-california-street/

[mmichaels1970]

With all the animosity Trump has engendered, he will have the hardest time garnering new delegates.

True. But there will also be some counter-pressure against these delegates to either accept a clear delegate leader or risk open party revolt. If two candidates are very close, I can see more potential for delegates going elsewhere. However if Trump has a commanding lead but only a plurality of delegates, I can see many not wanting to risk complete destruction of the party by going against the primary voters.

Now Mitt is in fantasyland. Following him is following a proven loser to certain defeat and destruction.

[Kent C]

>>What did you do with the delegates from the “missing states” of Colorado and Wyoming? NYT is not the only one to leave these states out. The rules in both states are so convoluted, it would take 3 pages to explain them.

I’m aware that there are different rules for different states - some pledged some unpledged and then Colorado :-)

Basically Republican ‘unpledged delegates’ are similar to the Dem ‘superdelegates’ but only a fraction of the whole vs. the Dems. It’s their way of having a ‘brokered convention’ without actually having one. lol

But I think the calculator gives an approximation of what is needed to get to a plurality - for Cruz or Trump. Trump’s path to majority is easier but not easy given his percentages so far.

[itsahoot]

Cruz is Far Right.

Cruz pretends he is Far Right.