[SampleMan]

The math seems very bad to me.

There are 2472 delegates.

As of now there are four candidates with delegates, and those are as follows:
Trump: 673
Cruz: 411
Rubio: 169
Kasich: 143
That leaves 1076 delegates remaining.
If Cruz picks up >62% of the remaining delegates, he will have more delegates than Trump entering the convention. And I’m not seeing the Rubio/Kasich voting breaking heavily for Trump.
Trump’s odds look pretty good right now, but the FRumpsters need to give the “get out” demands a rest.

[Ancesthntr]

“That leaves 1076 delegates remaining.

If Cruz picks up >62% of the remaining delegates, he will have more delegates than Trump entering the convention.”

---

Trump has a substantial lead in AZ, which is 58 delegates and is next week. NJ will similarly go for Trump, 51 more delegates. Now you have 967 delegates remaining in all of the other states (including NY and CA, by the way), and Cruz will need to make up (673-411) = 262 +58 +51 = 371. 967-371 = 596. So he has to win 371 + (596/2) = 669 out of 967 = 69.2%. And NY and CA are the 2 big states left at that point, both of which are likely to be heavily Trump. Sorry, the math is very much against Cruz - he simply isn’t going to get nearly 70% of the remaining delegates.

Let’s look at something else: can Cruz win on the first ballot? He needs 1,237 and has 411. Thus, he needs 826 out of 1,076 remaining. That’s 76.76%. Back out AZ and NJ only, and he loses 109 more delegates. Now he has to win 826 out of (1,076-109 = 967), or 85.4%. Add to that problem the fact that Trump will overwhelmingly win NY (probably 70-75 out of the 95 delegates), and do well in CA (at least 50% of the 172 at stake) and you have a mathematically impossible situation for Cruz...which begs the question of why is he still in the race? Cruz has (properly, IMHO) made it clear that if a candidate simply cannot win the nomination because the math prevents it, then they should leave for the good of the Party and the country. Shouldn’t the same standard apply to him?

[Pravious]

“Trump’s odds look pretty good right now, but the FRumpsters need to give the “get out” demands a rest.”

If Ted dropped out, it would pull the rug completely out from under the GOP-e. They’d have absolutely NO ONE left to turn to except Kasich, and even that wouldn’t work because he has no base of support and Trump would easily win enough of the remaining delegates.

If Ted is HONESTLY the “outsider” he says he is, he WOULD quit and deny the establishment their one chance to keep Trump out. Of course, he would have to see that he has no chance at winning the nomination himself - which I don’t think he admits to himself (yet). Perhaps he’s banking on Kasich dropping out and picking up some of his people (few as they are), but I think it’ll be too little too late, and it’s highly unlikely Cruz is going to pick up enough delegates to win going into the convention.