TIME TO DROP OUT? Ted Cruz Needs 87% of Remaining Delegates to Win Nomination

GP ^ | 03/17/16 | Jim Hoft

[Redleg Duke]

I am reminded of the following:

“The closest thing to a universal truth that I have found is that people respond to being treated with respect.”

You don’t remind me of that. Sad

[ConservingFreedom]

[SampleMan:] Newsflash, the majority of us don’t want Trump as our first choice, and we cast ballots too.”

By the way, who’s “us”?

Primary voters, fewer than half of whom have voted for Trump; also delegates, fewer than half of whom are assigned to Trump.

[SampleMan]

Yep. Previsely.

[Enlightened1]

Yep par for the course.

[ConservingFreedom]

Like Trump has been endorsed by GOPe stalwarts ex-Sen. Scott Brown (MA), Rep. Chris Collins (NY) who previously endorsed Yeb, Chris Christie, and Gov. Rick Scott (FL)?

[Sybeck1]

http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/

According to this, if someone other than Ted Cruz wins 130 delegates in upcoming contests Cruz is eliminated.

1,003 delegates remaining x .87 Cruz needs = 873

1,003 - 873 = 130

If some one other than Ted Cruz wins just 131 or so, Cruz can’t get there

[gg188]

PS, you and Cruzers will love this: Today MITT ROMNEY came out in support of Cruz. Glenn Beck, Nikki Haley. At least THESE people don’s suffer from cognitive dissonance when it comes to their guy, and they are on the side that they believe in and agree with (open borders, amnesty, gang of 8, globalism, TPP, TPA, NAFTA, North American Union, CFR, millions of new H1Bs and other immigrant work visas, settlement of rapefugee Syrians here by the tens of thousands, keep the door open to unlimited muslimes, etc.)

[ConservingFreedom]

millions of new H1Bs

Cruz does NOT support H-1B. From https://www.tedcruz.org/cruz-immigration-plan/:

Amend the H-1B visa program to fulfill its original purpose: Work with Congress to pass reform legislation for the H-1B visa program that will:

• Create an advanced degree requirement: Only individuals with advanced degrees in their respective fields may be brought to the United States with an H-1B visa. And preference will be given to those with advanced degrees from American universities.
• Create a "layoff cool-off" period for all H-1B visa applications: Companies must wait one or two years between laying off a worker and bringing in any H-1B foreign workers to ensure that the program is not used to displace American workers.
• Establish accreditation or recognition requirements for overseas schools: The recent lack of federal oversight of the H-1B visa program has fueled a cottage industry of diploma mills. Foreign academic institutions must meet minimum accreditation standards at least as stringent as those imposed on American universities in order to qualify for the advanced-degree requirement.
• Require sworn affidavits describing domestic hiring efforts: Companies will provide sworn statements and documentation that detail their efforts to hire Americans before requesting foreign workers through the H-1B visa program. Individuals who make false statements in these affidavits will be subject to perjury charges.
• Suspend companies from H-1B visa eligibility for failure to help foreign workers obtain green cards: Many companies misuse the H-1B visa program to train foreign workers that they intend to send back overseas to compete with America. The law must impose additional requirements on employers to pursue Legal Permanent Resident status on behalf of their H-1B visa-based foreign workers, or risk loss of access to the program.

"Ted Cruz, Jeff Sessions Roll Out Antidote To Broken H-1B Program: American Jobs First Act" - http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/3371276/posts

"Ted Cruz Explains why His Position on H-1B Visas Has Changed" - http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/3376485/posts

[Lazamataz]

Die

[Lazamataz]

Die

[stopevopen]

Here’s a valid question for you:

If Trump has a ceiling of 49%, in a two-man race, does Cruz have a floor of 51%?!? That’s laughable.

We DON’T KNOW what Trump’s ceiling is in a two-way race.

But, for now, it’s a three-way race. As it stands, I could easily see him handing Cruz’s ass to him on a silver platter in the northeast:

NY (proportional, 95 delegates): 65% (based on latest poll) of 95 = 62
NJ (winner-take-all, 51): Trump was crushing it in the polls in a five-way race and still should be, so 51
CT (proportional, 28): no recent poll data, but at least 15
RI (proportional, 19): Trump is killing it in the polls there, at least 10... probably 13-14
DE (winner-take-all, 16): no poll data, but Cruz won’t win here, 16
MD (winner-take-all, 38): not guaranteed, but I’d put money on it, 38
PA (winner-take-all, 71): Trump led in the polls two weeks ago by 17 points with Rubio still in. Rubio had 19 points. I doubt Cruz can take all 19. [Cruz is hated in PA, by the way; I live here, and I feel confident of that.] So, 71.

If my intuition is right, that gives Trump a minimum of 263... and probably more like 270.

I’m pretty sure he’ll take a bunch of other winner-take-all contests:

AZ (58): he leads solidly in two polls, so 58
WI (42): he led solidly in the last polls a month ago, so 42
CA (172): the biggie. He led handily in the polls the four-way race, with Rubio’s share not enough for Cruz to close the gap even if he got all of it. Plus, CA GOP is very heavily anti-Mexican illegals. So... 172

Right there, you have another 272. That’s 535 total. With his current 678, that puts him at 1213... 23 short of 1236.

But wait... I already said that I’m betting he’ll get another 7 out of the Northeast. So, he’d be 16 short.

Then, you have the proportional, direct election and unbound contests:

UT (40)
ND (28)
WV (34)
OR (28)
WA (44)
NM (24): Lots of anti-illegal sentiment in GOP here

Other winner-take-all

MT (27): No idea. No poll data. But I’m guessing that Trump’s xenophobic rhetoric will play well here.
SD (29): Again, no idea... no poll data.

If you can figure out how Trump won’t dig 16 delegates out of that map, be my guest.

Ironically, Kasich may be the spoiler. He’ll not only deny Cruz 3 or 4 contests he might have won one-on-one, but he’ll probably keep him from achieving the 8 state win threshold demanded by the convention rules.

Even if Kasich drops out, Trump should be close or over the required delegate count. And if he’s within 100 or so... it would be DAMN tough for the GOP to broker this without a full-scale revolt.

Plus, I could see Trump and Cruz joining forces... either one at the top of the ticket and the other as Veep.

Let’s see how it goes!