I believe that this will be the shape of the race after March 15th.
1. Rubio and Kasich will be dead. Neither will be viable. I had heard the report that Ted has opened headquarters in FL. What might be going on is that Ted is strategically trying to siphon votes off from Rubio. Baring a “hail Mary” Rubio is not going to beat Trump. Rubio will have to drop out. Ohio is a different matter. The spread is much closer there and Kasich might pull it out, although I don’t think so. If he does the establishment gop will pour everything into his campaign. But like I said, I think he loses and drops out.
2. This will leave a two man race. Cruz will grow and win some states. He will probably pick up Rubio’s delegates. This being the case, I think that both will go into the convention short. Trump will probably be close to a 1,000 delegates and Cruz at about 800.
3. Does the GOPe hate both Trump and Cruz so bitterly that they will pull some underhanded trick? The only thing that might preclude this if the rule change is fought on the floor and the Trump/Cruz force join and stop it.
4. If there is some underhanded trick, there will be a bloodbath, prompting both Trump and Cruz delegates to walk out.
5. If, in the midst of this insurgent year, someone like Bush or Kasich is forced upon us, Trump and Cruz needs to join forced and run as a third party ticket. I think that in this kind of atmosphere it would have the first real chance of victory for a third party movement since Teddy Roosevelt and the “Bull Moose” Party.
Anyone with any thoughts?
Why is Ryan automatically the Chairman of the convention?
I thought first order is to ELECT the chairman and THEN adopt the new rules.
If entering the convention it’s 1000/800 Trump/Cruz, then effectively, a brokered convention is up to Cruz. Will Cruz step aside and support Trump, or would Cruz instead try to win a brokered convention? If Cruz does support Trump yet Trump loses a brokered convention anyway....yikes, I don’t even want to go there.
I see Trump rolling up a majority of delegates before the convention, so all this brokerage talk is just that. What will happen is that a lot of party regulars won’t attend the convention, or even hold a competing event.