Posted on 02/23/2016 12:17:53 PM PST by Cincinatus' Wife
As the Republican establishment frets over a potential Trump-led (or, to a lesser degree, Cruz-led) presidential ticket, other GOP leaders and officeholders are starting to worry about down-ticket effects.
If Trump becomes the nominee, states holding U.S. Senate races - Florida is among them - could see trouble for Republicans and the future of the GOP-controlled Senate.
A new Smart Politics report shows that rarely - or never - does a state vote for a Republican U.S. Senator and elect a Democratic presidential nominee. Of the 18 states voting for a Democratic presidential nominee with a Republican U.S. Senate candidate in the same election cycle, 11 will hold Senate races in 2016, including five crucial battlegrounds: Florida, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Arizona, and Indiana.
Of course, Trump or Cruz at the top of the ticket in November does not automatically mean Republicans will lose down-ballot. But Smart Politics reports that in Florida, it would be a first. Florida, with an open Senate seat due to the presidential campaign of Marco Rubio, is the most commonly cited Republican race in danger of flipping in 2016.
In those five states with a Democratic winner in over 35 election cycles that also had U.S. Senate races, Republicans lost all 35: 10 times in Florida, nine each in North Carolina and Wisconsin, five times in Arizona and twice in Indiana. Conversely, Kansas is the only state never to split the ticket the other way; that is, electing a GOP nominee for president and a Democrat for U.S. Senate.
Traditionally, Smart Politics says it is much more frequent for a state to split the federal ticket when there are a Republican presidential candidate and a Democratic U.S. Senate nominee (153 times) as opposed to victories for a Democratic presidential candidate and a GOP U.S. Senate nominee (78 times).
According to Eric Ostermeyer of Smart Politics: "10 states with competitive (Florida, Illinois, New Hampshire, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin) or potentially competitive (Arizona, Indiana, Missouri, North Carolina) U.S. Senate races with Republican-held seats in 2016 have voted for a GOP U.S. Senate nominee in 16 of the 60 cycles in which it backed a Democratic presidential candidate (26.7 percent)."
While there are no guarantees, having Trump or Cruz on the ticket, historically, could make it somewhat more difficult for the down-ballot Florida Senate seat to remain in GOP hands.
With all the yankees in FL the down ticket folks will do just fine!-)
Trump / Omarosa!
Republicans are going to the polls in much greater numbers than democrats so far this year. That’s reality on the ground.
I think the premise of the article is correct. Risk-averse voters nervous about Trump or Cruz are much more likely to ticket-split, which could kill us in the Senate.
What we can certainly know from Reichhhhhhhh or any other Dim statement is that they want more divisiveness among conservatives.
I’m with Demkicker albeit from the other side ... Trump or Cruz, Cruz or Trump, NOT Rubio or Kasich.
And if FR is any indication, the party is so divided that a good chunk of those voting in the primaries will not vote for the eventual nominee if he's not "my guy". I think the general level of vitriol here is a pretty good indicator that the party will be a wreck going into November. We will be able to beat Hillary if she is indicted, but otherwise....
Gonna be President Hillary and a Democratic Senate.
There is not going to be a Trump/Cruz ticket. Trump/Guiliani or Trump/Kasich more likely.
Just wait for the ad showing him saying in that 4th debate that wages are too high. "The billionaire who thinks working people make to much."
That'll be a real knee-slapper.
Anything could happen this fall. The nation is in steep decline. All best are off IMO.
>There is not going to be a Trump/Cruz ticket.
I wrote my previous post with a phone, and I’m still pretty sure I didn’t put a “/” in there but an “or.”
>Trump/Guiliani or Trump/Kasich more likely.
I would be very surprised at either; the first because they’re both NYers, and the 2nd because they’re opposites.
Also possibility of Trump/Scott
You are a paid Establishment / Elitist operative.
As with anything else, the Florida race will depend mostly on the candidate. If the Democrats go with Alan Grayson then the Florida seat should be safe.
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