[SamAdams76]

So basically the ups and downs are within MOE. Just statistical noise. Despite what many here have been proclaiming, the state of the race remains essentially unchanged post-debate with regard to the state of South Carolina.

And now Donald Trump is before another large rally audience gesturing and speaking in his brash, confident voice with no teleprompter.

[Greetings_Puny_Humans]

Don’t know. I do think Rubio strengthening could be real, since people might be tempted to move from Jeb to Rubio. It was observed by a commentator in other polls that any movement from Trump does not save Cruz. If Trump dropped out of the race, Cruz would be second place to Rubio.

I think Cruz has made himself too toxic, as has Jeb. All this is good for Trump, because it means Trump isn’t going to be losing votes to Cruz, who is his only real competitor in South Carolina. Trump could plummet 10 points and all it would result in is Rubio getting second place and him still winning.

Note how bad Cruz’s numbers are with independents and moderates.