What if they’re not?
The only way they are not is if the national poll is completely off. If the national poll is even loosely accurate, and if what you cruznadians say is true about the south (religious=cruzvoter) then in the non-southern states (including Florida) the huge Trump plurality MUST show up, since it is suppressed, by definition (your guys definition) in the south.
EITHER the national polls are way off OR Trump is going to win most or all non-southern (including Florida) states.
It is the logic of arithmetic, which may or may not apply in Canada, I dont know, I never lived there.