Since the fall he has beaten her or been a few points down to her. Depends on the poll.
But, Ford was down big time to Carter and almost pulled it out.
Reagan was down to Carter but pulled it out in a landslide.
The campaign is everything.
Yes, it is. General election polls at this point, before there are nominees, are really not useful. Polls do show trends, but really are only important a week or less out from a vote.