If Cruz doesn’t get 10 percent that is a loss.
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Not really. But if he places low in NH, he is still in the race. Cruz will be in it until the end.
17 would be Big Mo for trump . you know Nate Silver isn’t predicting such a big Trump win he said I think one point more than me 29% for Trump. I assume 2nd is 16-18 percent that is why I picked 28%. A 2 person race like the Dems makes 20 point wins more likely.
The spin room wants to always minimize both wins and losses. But double digits is major.
Under 10 percent you don’t get a share of delegates, that is much more important.
If Cruz doesn’t get 10 percent that is a loss.
You must receive a minimum of 10 % to get any delegates, so not getting delegates doesn’t move you towards winning.