[Daniel Ramsey]

I think this prediction is very spot on.

[JediJones]

I’ve listened to Deace radio show frequently over the last year. He’s smarter than ANYONE I’ve ever heard about elections and the modern, younger conservative movement. Better than Rush, Levin, Hannity, etc.

Here’s the actual Iowa results and then his Iowa prediction. The only ones he was somewhat far off on where Rubio, about 4 higher than he predicted, and Rand, about 3.5 lower. No wonder Rand dropped out.

Actual:
180,000+ turnout
Ted Cruz (27.7%)
Donald Trump (24.3%)
Marco Rubio (23.1%)
Ben Carson (9.3%)
Rand Paul (4.5%)
Jeb Bush (2.8%)
Carly Fiorina (1.9%)
others (7.3%)

Steve Deace’s Prediction:
Turnout: 145,000 (roughly 20% turnout increase—I’ll split the difference with what I see and what the polls say)

Ted Cruz – 28%
Donald Trump – 23%
Marco Rubio – 19%
Rand Paul – 8%
Ben Carson – 7%
(tie) Jeb Bush – 4%
Chris Christie – 4%
Mike Huckabee – 3%
Carly Fiorina – 2%
(tie) John Kasich – 1%
Rick Santorum – 1%

[usafa92]

Nate Silvers prediction model is Trump 27, Rubio 16, Kasich 15, Bush 14, Cruz 12. Deace may have been correct in Iowa because he is from Iowa, but he’s a Cruz hack writing for CR which is an extension of the Cruz campaign. We’ll go with Nate on this one.

[libbylu]

I predicted Cruz, Rubio then Trump in Iowa and it was really close. I’ll be surprised if Trump makes 25% in NH.