Erdogan has been massing military on the Syrian/Turkey border for a while now, giving the reason it’s there to “protect” the refugees coming out of Syria. When in fact he’s been positioning his military to , I believe, run to Damascus when it falls and declare himself the Caliphat.
Erdogan Says US Must Choose Between Turkey And Syrian Kurds to partner with, he’s been asking for American political and air support for a move into northern Syria since July of last year. This would give Erdogan international legitimacy for an intervention and that the Russians would be more wary of shooting down American jets than they would be of shooting down Turkish jets.
Erdogan is just angry that the US is supporting the Kurds......and he’s angry with Putin for “occupying” Syria. He wanted the US to go after Assads army so he could just go in for the spoils.
“Erdogan Says US Must Choose Between Turkey And Syrian Kurds to partner with”
It looks like the US is siding with the Syrian Kurds (but will probably strive to have it both ways). US envoy Brett McGurk was recently in Kobane (with high level British and French representatives) to meet with those YPG Kurds, and their allies in the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). Apparently, this was final coordination for a major assault by the Kurds across Turkey’s “red line” of the Euphrates River.
The US has been delivering weapons and ammo for this operation, and forces have been massing around the River crossing of the Tishreen Dam. Reportedly, a contingent of US Special operators has recently joined this assault force.
The target appears to be Manbij - the “Little London” of ISIS, which was their main location for receiving and processing foreign jihadis. In anticipation of the assault, ISIS has recently evacuated their prisoners held their back to Raqaa. Folks are speculating that this could launch Tuesday or Wednesday, with American logistic support and French air support, and possibly UK Spec ops - so much for NATO siding with Turkey. We will see if the air strikes pick up there in preparation - lately, there has been more recon than strike over Manbij.
After the Paris terrorist attacks, and the immigrant crisis, Europeans are feeling the heat to slap down ISIS. It may be that the US administration wants to clean up the political mess that it has from its support of the Syrian rebels (who have committed historic atrocities) and running guns from Benghazi, to get the issue off the table before the elections in November. I think that the mess has just become too great, and Western Governments want to wash their hands of this failed adventure.
There are also signs of US and Russian coordination on this approach. Both sides have armed the YPG Kurds who widely announce their intention to join Afrin and Kobane into their new Kurdish Rojava, and provided them air support. When Turkey started massing near the border in Eastern Syria, threatening to cut off Kurdish supply routes from Iraq, both Russia and and the US established air bases in that sector (Qamshili and Rmelian). Russians, Americans and French have all been bombing Manbij, although American and Russian priorities have been elsewhere lately (Iraq and Aleppo).
The Western (Russian) side of the operation to have the YPG Kurds close off the Turkish border has already launched - and the Kurds are making good progress expanding Eastward, now just out of sniper range from Azaz, and within range to its nearby Menagh Air Base. They are not engaging ISIS, but rather the Free Syrian Army, and a witches brew of islamist militias, including al Queda’s Nusra Front. When the Manbij assault launches, it will be entirely against ISIS, and against their strategically vital supply line to Turkey.
If Turkey can’t stop this operation in Syria, then we can expect to see increasing defections and desertions among the jihadis as the noose tightens. It is not unrealistic to anticipate Raqaa being liberated this Summer.
The Turks and Saudis might find a counter to disrupt this strategy, such as providing anti-air missiles to the jihadis, or directly invading. Foreign Military Sales agreements might prohibit them from doing so with US made weapons, without US approval, so if the US is trying to quietly clean up the mess they (Obama) covertly made, that is not likely.
Perhaps the Saudis could bribe or blackmail Obama to betray the Kurds by having them commit in force across the river, and then let a Turkish armor force cut them off and slaughter them. Even if they did, the Russians, Syrians, and maybe even the French (unlikely) might provide air support. A few attack helicopters can demolish tank units in the open.