| Poll | Date | Sample | MoE |
Trump
|
Rubio
|
Kasich
|
Cruz
|
Bush
|
Christie
|
Fiorina
|
Carson
|
Spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RCP Average | 2/2 - 2/6 | -- | -- | 31.3 | 15.1 | 12.0 | 11.9 | 9.7 | 5.0 | 4.7 | 3.0 | Trump +16.2 |
| MonmouthMonmouth | 2/4 - 2/6 | 508 LV | 4.4 | 30 | 13 | 14 | 12 | 13 | 6 | 5 | 4 | Trump +16 |
| ARG (Tracking)ARG | 2/5 - 2/6 | 422 LV | 5.0 | 31 | 17 | 17 | 9 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 | Trump +14 |
| UMass/7News (Tracking)UMass Lowell | 2/4 - 2/6 | 516 LV | 4.8 | 36 | 14 | 9 | 13 | 10 | 4 | 4 | 3 | Trump +22 |
| CNN/WMURCNN/WMUR | 2/3 - 2/6 | 362 LV | 5.2 | 33 | 16 | 11 | 14 | 7 | 4 | 6 | 2 | Trump +17 |
| Boston Herald/FPUBoston Herald | 2/2 - 2/6 | 433 LV | 4.7 | 31 | 15 | 11 | 16 | 10 | 5 | 4 | 3 | Trump +15 |
| UMass/7News (Tracking)UMass Lowell | 2/3 - 2/5 | 501 LV | 4.9 | 35 | 14 | 10 | 13 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | Trump +21 |
| ARG (Tracking)ARG | 2/4 - 2/5 | 415 LV | 5.0 | 34 | 16 | 17 | 9 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 2 | Trump +17 |
| Boston Globe/SuffolkBoston Globe | 2/3 - 2/4 | 500 LV | 4.4 | 29 | 19 | 13 | 7 | 10 | 5 | 4 | 4 | Trump +10 |
| ARG (Tracking)ARG | 2/3 - 2/4 | 420 LV | 5.0 | 36 | 15 | 14 | 12 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 2 | Trump +21 |
| WBUR/MassINCWBUR/MassINC | 2/2 - 2/4 | 410 LV | 4.9 | 29 | 12 | 9 | 12 | 9 | 6 | 8 | 4 | Trump +17 |
(taking the RCP average)
So mathematically, Trump is outside the "shooting range" of the nearest competitor.
= Trump win
Trump will underperform his polling like Iowa but will win.
Question is who will over-perform?
Projection for over-performing their polling: Christie & Cruz. The rest - not so much.
Both Kasich and Jeb are too milk toasty this time around.
The boy in the bubble Rubio got called out on his tactic of jabbing and parrying to Obama last night to avoid scrutiny of his positions. It was too engrained from his stump speeches so he couldn’t do anything but. Iowa caucus goers were baited in. Christies aim finally got dialed in last night.
We’ll see if NH voters will be suckered the same as Iowa in 2 days.