I’m assuming their testing keeps it conventional.
World history is filled with two forced: 1) Imperialism—a state taking over other states and forming superstates (think Rome) and 2) Balkanism where big states are broken up into smaller and smaller states. Balkanism is the force in play at the moment and has been since the Second World War—most recent empire to fall was the USSR. But, things may well be changing back to Empire. Putin sees this and is taking advantage of these forces. China is also in play as is a hand full of other nations—Even ISIS is in the new Empire Building Mode.