Carson’s RCP average was 7.7% and he got 9.3%, a great jump, just over an 18% increase in vote share. (Cruz ended up winning with a 13.5% jump.) Carson got 17,395 votes, if Cruz “stole” 6,239 (the number of votes he won by) then Carson would have received 23,634, putting him at 12.6%. A giant jump over his 7.7% RCP average, in fact a 39% increase in vote share.
No way he had 39% more support than the polls were suggesting. Rubio ended up with 27% more, and that is correctly seen as a stunning result.
But Carson’s increase could have been equal to Rubio’s or greater and some polls had Carson at 9%. So an increase of 4% is not totally unreasonable. But these are just numbers aren’t they. We can’t gloss over a despicable act by simply saying it would not have mattered.