Keep telling yourself that. Trump was beating Ted Cruz in the last 13 polls for Iowa, all in the last week. CNN and Fox polls had Cruz losing by a massive 11 points and Cruz still won, and not by a squeaker like Hilary Clinton, but by 4 points. That is pretty impressive need matter how you twist it.
I honestly never expected Trump to Win Iowa. After Huckabee and Santorum, it’s clear what you have to do to win the Iowa republican caucus and Ted made sure to do just that. What remains to be see is how much that strategy pays off after Iowa.
Cruz’s eminent domain and single-payer attacks against Trump were very effective and helped close the gap and sway undecideds.