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Posted on 02/02/2016 2:18:13 PM PST by SoConPubbie
A long, long time ago in a media far, far removed from the internet, news organizations had groups of people called veteran reporters. The media would send them out to places called diners and get them to engage the public. Nowadays, the media does something called a poll and saves money by sending online to Twitter a group of twenty somethings in plaid who think history happened when Barack Obama declared the oceans would recede. The result is an emotional media reflecting the biases of twenty-something liberals intent on saving the world through one social justice mission at a time.
As a result, the media largely missed what was happening in Iowa. They only got around to the idea of “Marcomentum†because of an aggressive media operation by the Marco Rubio campaign, spoon-feeding data to the twenty-something reporters shivering in skinny jeans. But when the “highly respected†Des Moines Register poll came out late Saturday, the media preferred to focus on it than the ground. Suddenly talk of a Rubio surge was silly.
The media saw a resurgent buzz of Donald Trump supporters on Twitter and Facebook. So surely Donald Trump was doing as well as the Des Moines Register and other polls suggested. Likewise, Ted Cruz had attacked Donald Trump for “New York values.†The left-leaning press corps, which dwells mostly in New York City, was convinced that this would damage Ted Cruz in Iowa.
The media also underestimated how many icky evangelicals would show up in Iowa. After all, there are not that many evangelicals in New York or Washington or on Twitter, so surely they must not exist in high numbers in Iowa. The polling in Iowa put evangelical turnout at less than fifty percent. In reality it composed almost two-thirds of the Iowa Republican turnout.
What is more, the media so hates the “true believer†Ted Cruz, that it could not fathom he would do well in Iowa. He is completely unlikeable. The talking heads on television tell us that and the media regurgitates it. Never mind the polling that shows Ted Cruz has high likability among Republicans, the guys in Washington who feed reporters talking points do not like him, so Ted Cruz must be unlikable.
Then there was the terrible mail piece Ted Cruz did that was just like the mail piece Barack Obama did in 2012. It showed voters what their neighbors’ voting records were. The media thought it was novel when Barack Obama did it, but when Ted Cruz sent it to no more than 3,000 Iowa voters, it was an outrageous scandal.
Lastly, Ted Cruz should have attacked Donald Trump the whole time. Talking heads in Washington and reporter whisperers insisted that if Cruz did not bash Donald Trump for months, he could not claim any credible win. The whole idea of Cruz waiting until he was strong in the polls to mount an attack was crazy talk to the people reporters listen to who hate Ted Cruz.
Naturally, every single thing the media reported and based on media polls formed with media assumptions turned out to be wrong. Cruz was smart to be kind to Trump and let Trump strike first. His mail piece, though I too hated it, worked. Evangelicals did turn out to support Cruz and Rubio against Trump in high numbers. Entrance polling showed that only five percent of Iowans thought Trump’s “New York values†reflected their values while thirty-seven percent thought Cruz shared their values.
Had the media bothered to send veteran reporters to Iowa to camp out, travel the state, and meet people in the real world instead of online, they would have heard the stories I heard and seen the things I saw. The Cruz operation had a tremendous ground game. The various campaigns told the same story repeatedly — they all encountered angry Trump voters, they all encountered campaign workers from each others’ campaigns, but they never encountered Trump workers. There was a growing fear that Trump would get the nomination and lose to Hillary.
It was obvious that evangelicals were going to turn out in high numbers. It was obvious that Cruz was going to turn out voters. It was obvious that Marco Rubio really had momentum at the end. It was obvious the Trump people in Iowa had no clue what was going on. But to save money and guided by their emotions, much of the media missed much of what was happening. In the end, the press let flawed polls shape their coverage and their coverage and assumptions were wrong.
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I reject your reality and substitute my own... my own Trump reality.
I was very sure that Cruz would win Iowa, I was hoping for a stronger showing, but looks like Rubio bled enough off of both Trump and Cruz to drive them down. THAT should be what people are afraid of, not that some polls were inaccurate as usual in Iowa.
No Eric, “where Arrogance meets incompetence: Erickson that is your specialty.
Perhaps instead of breaking their arms patting themselves on the back, people like Erickson might start thinking about why, despite their non stop full court press in the “Conservative Media Establishment for him, and the “greatest Ground Game in History”, Cruz comes out of Iowa with exactly 1 more delegate than Trump or Rubio?
The media also hasn’t reported this. Better out now than have the left report it.
Christianity Today
This sort of political discourse is starting to affect how evangelicals talk about Trump. A notable exception is Russell Moore. He has consistently presented a line of argument—and not just name calling. His major thesis is that Trump is immoral by Christian standards. This is a fact: from Trump’s owning of strip clubs to his bragging about sleeping around to his Nietzsche-esque notions of power. Moore believes that a leader’s moral behavior will affect his leadership, so he argues that no Christian should support a candidate like Trump. This will not convince all Christians, but at least it’s an argument grounded in the fact of Trump’s moral behavior.
Charisma Magazine
“The late Dr. Jerry Falwell Sr. would be rolling over in his grave if he knew the son who bore his name had endorsed the most immoral and ungodly man to ever run for President of the United States,†John Stemberger, president of Florida Family Action, said in a statement Monday. “Trump is a thrice married owner of casing with strip clubs and would give us the first ‘First Lady’ who has proudly posed in the nude while supporting gay marriage and funding Planned Parenthood with taxpayer money.â€
Unique in So Many Ways
Indeed, Trump would be like no president before him.
The first to be married three times, cheating on the first two (and probably the third).
The first whose wife appeared nude in a magazine.
The first to boast of his sexual proclivities, claiming to have had sexual relations with some of the “top women in the world.” (This is who Sarah Palin is supporting?)
He will be the first that has owned casinos with strip clubs.
To proudly proclaim that he will seek revenge against his personal enemies “as viciously and as violently as you can.”
His wife will be the first first lady that has posed for lesbian porn.
And with that last bullet in mind, do you really think for a minute that Trump opposes gay marriage?
http://www.charismanews.com/opinion/54750-evangelicals-please-don-t-let-donald-trump-fool-you
Why Donald Trump Threatens to Trump the Gospel
Donald Trump talked about his Christian faith Saturday, but said he’s never sought forgiveness for his sins.
The event is a gathering sponsored by several socially-conservative Christian organizations, including the Family Research Council, a socially conservative lobbying organization; Liberty University, the world’s largest evangelical university; and the National Organization for Marriage, a group established to prevent the legalization of same-sex marriage.
Trump, who told CNN earlier that he is both anti-abortion and anti-same-sex marriage, said people are surprised to learn about his Christian faith.
“People are so shocked when they find ... out I am Protestant. I am Presbyterian. And I go to church and I love God and I love my church,” he said.
Moderator Frank Luntz asked Trump whether he has ever asked God for forgiveness for his actions.
“I am not sure I have. I just go on and try to do a better job from there. I don’t think so,” he said. “I think if I do something wrong, I think, I just try and make it right. I don’t bring God into that picture. I don’t.”
www.christianitytoday.com/edstetzer/2015/july/morning-roundup-72715.html
Trump started going up in the polls only very late. I wasn’t buying it at all.
I hadn't realized that he was such a fool.
Delusions of grandeur.
I was not surprised that Cruz won. Evangelicals always win in Iowa. Trump came close.
Wow, this article could of wrote itself at FR. I have seen every one of those scenarios played out this week (and some still being used today).
Agreed.
In the long run, all Cruz really accomplished was to throw a life-line to the Republican establishment, in the form of Rubio. Cruz was always going to be strong in Iowa (and, at a later point, Texas), so his narrow victory isn’t much of a surprise. The net effect is that Rubio and the Republican establishment can breath a huge sigh of relief today, since Iowa voters missed an opportunity to deal them a fatal blow. Hopefully, subsequent states will not follow Iowa’s lead, and can undo the good fortune that Iowa bestowed upon the establishment.
Trump did quite well with evangelical voters...compare his results to where Santorum won in 2012 and you’ll see.
I think Rubio is a bigger threat to Trump than Cruz is going forward.
I hated that TRUMP finished 2nd in Iowa and a butt-head like Erickson gets to gloat but let’s just see what happens in New Hampshire. It’s not over yet...TRUMP 2016!
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Interesting. Why?
my theory is that the GOPe and the media are beyond pissed that Cruz won and is so popular WITHOUT their respective support or introduction. This election is about the people deciding, not the media, who they like. The media hate that. Afterall, we are just stupid and need to be told what to think. We are telling all the media what we think and they can’t handle it.
I have to agree also. Rubio is a smooth talker. Slick like and delivers well. I was surprised he hasn't been doing better.
Shhhh. Reason and logic have no place here when there's still name calling to be done.
Trump will easily win NH and I don’t see him losing SC or NV either.
If you looked at the unfavorables and the head to head polling it was hard not to come down on the side of Trump winning. To me it always looked like all three would get about the same number of delegates.
How about Texas and California?
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