Trump a long shot in Iowa? Except for two weeks in late October and early November when Carson spiked, and a late December through mid January Cruz surge, Trump led all Iowa polling for the last six months. Trump was up 4.7% in the RCP average going into last night.
Trump spent over $3 million on TV ads in Iowa, and I read he had over 50 campaign events there.
Check it out: Top yellow line (then look what polling numbers under it had predicted)