It’s still early, but:
Gilmore 0.0%
Other 0.0%
Santorum 0.8%
Christie 1.1%
Kasich 1.4%
Fiorina 1.6%
Huckabee 1.6%
Jeb Bush 2.6%
(current) Total for these minor candidates: 9.3%
Ben Carson 10.1%
Marco Rubio 19.0%
Donald Trump 26.0%
Ted Cruz 30.9%
(current) Total for the real candidates: 86.0%
It’s over for everyone other than the top four, unless they can do something spectacular in New Hampshire [VERY unlikely!].
Rubio wins, since this comes close to knocking out his pro-Amnesty establishment competitors, which is his strategy. Rubio is now the establishment favorite with 2016 election credentials, and he’s waiting for one of the two leaders to stumble.
Cruz wins, since he didn’t lose to Trump. He needs to not do too badly in NH and then win SC.
Carson isn’t out of it, and a strong finish in NH could revive his candidacy. Not disappearing is a comparative win.
Trump needs to prove himself in NH, since his candidacy is predicated on being a winner. This is a minor loss for Trump, but only minor since it is a caucus and not a primary.
[All this assumes the totals don’t change too much as more results come in.]
Oops, I left out Rand Paul, a minor candidate at 4.3%. Paul would be better in office than a lot of choices, but he just doesn’t appeal outside his narrow range of supporters. Having a nutty father is not an advantage when you’re close to the political fringe.
Also, Christie is expected to do comparatively well in NH. After Iowa, I doubt that any realistic outcome would be enough for him to challenge Rubio as the strongest big government RINO insider.