True, but it is also about perception. If Trump goes from a 28 point lead to a 2 point win in a week, the perception is going to be that he is falling fast. That would be two elections in a row where he performed much worse than the polls indicated, which would make everyone start to question all of the other polls showing him in the lead.
And since like Iowa, NH is a proportional state, that 2-pt lead will mean an extra 1 delegate over the number two finisher.
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NH is already in motion tonight.
Check the betting lines.
Trump is not going to go to a 2 pt lead by next week. I’m talking down the road like the SEC where many others will have dropped out. When you get to only two or three candidates the numbers will tighten. They have to.