Yeah, please give me a scenario where Cruz wins the rust belt ... it will never happen
Trump will have an edge in the Rustbelt. This is where steel and manufacturing left. Obama killed coal in WV/PA/KY. A lot of angry voters here.
Reagan. Every other Republican candidate that won the presidency are the only ones that ran as conservatives all the ones that ran as rinos lost. Bush I ran the first time as a conservative by the second time he was a rino.
Now give me an example of the last Republican North-easterner who won the Presidency? What about the last Republican New Yorker?
Trump has a good chance but history does have real meaning.... and historically the South and mid-West do not like or vote North-eastern rinos nor do they trust people from the North and playing games with his abortion stance just prove it, they do not think Northerner's can be trusted to keep their words. Slick word games are a stupid thing to do in flyover country.