It’d be really goofy if Cruz loses based on Carson getting 10%, because Carson is an also-ran and most of his votes would go to Cruz. Trump would be hard-pressed to get over 50% in this state in any one on one race. He’d probably even lose to Jeb.
Cruz may win the "popular" vote in Iowa, but he, Trump and Cruz look like they're going to walk out with 5 delegates each -- a TIE.
That does NOT bode well going forward. Rubio has a moral victory here to build upon, and the GOP-E is going to seize on that like no one's business. You can bet the farm that everyone below Rubio is going to be pressured to drop out starting first thing tomorrow morning (if those calls aren't being made already) to consolidate support to Rubio.
This is NOT GOOD for any Trump or Cruz supporter.
Looks like I might win half of our cyber coffee.