For Trump to win in Iowa, his support will have to come overwhelmingly from voters who are already registered as Republicans. The tens of thousands of newly registered caucus-goers just haven’t materialized. Personal connections still mean more than ephemeral ‘enthusiasm’.
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Unfortunately they can register to caucus on Monday. I can see the “formerly lib democrat” Trump bussing in “new voters” from IL or MN. After all, if you can’t get there on merit buy or cheat your way in.
Note: I am not accusing Trump of cheating, just wouldn’t put it past him.
There are very few locations in Iowa where bringing in cheaters could take place, and even fewer places where such cheating could happen in the Republican Party.
The Iowa Secretary of State, and the rest of the Iowa government isn’t going to allow a single candidate to kill the goose that lays golden eggs.