Posted on 01/28/2016 7:26:39 PM PST by BeauBo
The powerful Syrian Kurdish YPG militia and its local allies have drawn up plans for a major attack to seize the final stretch of the Syrian-Turkish border held by Islamic State fighters, a YPG source familiar with the plan said on Thursday.
Such an offensive could deprive Islamic State fighters of a logistical route that has been used by the group to bring in supplies and foreign recruits.
But it could lead to confrontation with Turkey, which is fighting against its own Kurdish insurgents and sees the Syrian Kurds as an enemy.
...The source confirmed a report on Kurdish news website Xeber24 which cited a senior YPG leader saying the plan includes crossing the Euphrates to attack the Islamic State-held towns of Jarablus and Manbij, in addition to Azaz, which is held by other insurgent groups.
The source did not give a planned date, but said a Jan. 29 date mentioned in the Xeber24 report might not be accurate.
(Excerpt) Read more at businessinsider.com ...
Turkey blocked the Kurds from having a seat at the peace talks in Vienna this week. This planned operation could just be a big bargaining chip for those talks, or it could be that Russia/Syria/Kurds are looking to win on the ground, rather than through peace talks (or to grab as much ground as possible before a cease fire).
If the Kurds do take over this 50 mile wide corridor (Azaz to Jarabulus) and shut off the flow of Turkish support, ISIS is doomed in Syria, and Assad is saved.
bttt
More plans!! We need to hear more about the plans!!
I hope it’s not a secret.
Yeah, tell 'em the date and time too.
“More plans!! We need to hear more about the plans!!”
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Yeah, tell ‘em the date and time too.
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Yes, and don’t forget to let us know about the disposition of all involved Kurdish forces and the complete order of battle.
But, seriously, Turkey...with full tacit support of the Obama regime...will resist this and help defend ISIS.
Elaine Dickinson: When will you be back?
Ted Striker: I can't tell you that. It's classified.
This is probably much more than an empty plan - it has been building all month.
The Kurds did cross the Euphrates River at the start of the month - violating Turkey’s “Red Line”.
There have been skirmishes all through that zone, all month, preparing the battlefield.
What is brewing now, is to move in with a large occupation force of several thousand, decisively drive out the opposition, harden against counterattack, and establish checkpoints to decisively shut off resupply to Turkey’s surrogates (including ISIS). That takes a coordinated plan.
Last Summer, the Kurds swept along the Turkish/Syrian border for Iraq all the way to the Euphrates (four or five times as long as this piece) and have held it.
It used to be a short drive from the ISIS capital of Raqaa to Turkey for resupply, medevac, and even routine recreation. The Kurds have blocked that and held it. ISIS now has to drive hundreds of miles to get stuff from Turkey, under threat of Russian air attack.
The Kurds are highly motivated to link up the isolated Kurdish area to the West (Afrin), with the rest of their de facto new Kurdish Canton of Rojava.
The Turks are squealing like stuck pigs at the Kurds making this move. They called the US Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff to Turkey when the Kurds crossed their “Red Line” - but the US has not publicly done anything to stop the Kurdish advance.
Recent reports indicate that Russia has given the Syrian Kurds heavy weapons and armored vehicles - which would be a big upgrade for them (the Iraqi Kurds only field six WW II era tanks).
If you look at recent Russian air strikes and Syrian Army movements, they have been clearly working to interdict the supply lines and encircle Aleppo. Supporting the Kurds in closing this last gap is essential to the Russian/Syrian strategy.
Cutting this supply corridor will cut both ways - no ammo to ISIS, but also no Syrian oil to the Erdogan crime family in Turkey. It’s kind of a big deal really.
Shh, don’t tell anyone!
And 0bama.
We also need more battle troops logistics!! Any info on that?
“I hope it’s not a secret.”
If it was, it may be overtaken by events - it is dawn of 29 January (D Day) there now. So there were probably a lot of trucks driving around, and guys kissing their girlfriends goodbye and such.
They may have wanted to time the major movement with the Vienna peace talks, so that the Turks and Arabs are getting lots of heated news bulletins from the battlefield during negotiations.
In any event, they have been building toward a decisive operation all month - this was just the first report that it was kicking off. We will see if the diplomats can halt it.
ISIS is losing all supply lines. Life in Raqqa is going to get very interesting before the Summer.
“We also need more battle troops logistics!! Any info on that?”
The YPG, the Kurdish militia in Northern Syria that has been conquering the Northern border area since last May, has enough troops for this operation (from a few thousand to twenty thousand) - as long as Turkey does not cross the border into Syria.
There were reports of some Turkish military entering Jarabulus in the last week - 200-300 troops, a mile or two into Syria. Most of the area being contested in this operation, is within artillery range from Turkish territory (15-20 miles). Azaz and Jarabulus themselves are within easy range of regular tube artillery shells (2-5 miles).
The Kurds have been light fighters without a big logistics tail, and have not suffered much from logistics constraints, but this may be different than the rest of their run across Northern Syria.
The rest of their run was through ethnically Kurdish areas. This last bit has a population of hundreds of thousands of ethnic Turks (Turkmen) and additional Arabs, with a minority of Kurds. With Kurdish enclaves to the East and West though, they won’t have too far to go for supplies, as long as they can drive (10 - 60 miles).
If the Russians are supplying them as reported elsewhere, they can resupply from the Russian naval base, and then by air to Afrin. A Western ground route through Latakia to Afrin is contested ground, although the regime has been advancing. When the Kurds from the East and the Regime from the South link up in Afrin, the major city of Aleppo will be completely encircled.
“Life in Raqqa is going to get very interesting before the Summer.”
When the Turkish border is closed, ISIS will depend on running resupply up the Euphrates from Iraq. Deir ez Zour is heating up now, in a battle to secure that supply route.
The Kurdish front lines are like a half hour drive from Raqaa to the North. Assault forces could mass there in a week when the decision is made. and be downtown in a few days from the attack.
Raqaa is ethnically Arab, so the Kurds are not inherently eager to take that territory, but they do fervently want to link Afrin to the rest of their newly autonomous Rojava. I would not be surprised if that was their price for participating. It fits right in to Russia’s strategy to defeat the Western/Turkish supported rebels in the West first, and leave Syria as a choice between Assad or ISIS.
I am guessing that life will suck in Raqaa, but that the Regime/Russian priority for ground assault will go elsewhere, until the West is secured. There are a lot of Kurdish troops (e.g. Yazidis) who would be eager to go into Raqaa, just to give ISIS some payback. Their leadership does not spend their lives cheaply though.
Of course, America could pay for, supply and provide air strikes for a Kurdish ground conquest of Raqaa in the meantime, but the only thing that I would anticipate causing Obama to do that, would be some electoral consideration back in the US.
Let the Kurds have their way.
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