Trump may in fact lose Iowa...stranger things have happened. But there is absolutely nothing in the polls, word on the ground, or rally attendance that points to that happening.
Do Trump Voters Really Exist? How Both Parties Botched Iowa
Granted it's daily beast but are their stats wrong? Are there no new registrations?
If Trump loses Iowa, it will be because of massive voter fraud.
Which, I’m afraid, would not be altogether surprising.
If he wins Iowa without the debate, he's in the strongest possible position to win the nomination. If he loses but has the Fox News asterisk to place next to his defeat, he'll attempt to turn that into momentum for New Hampshire and beyond.
If..., If...
There is every reason to believe that Cruz will turn out 35K for certain. That is probably a low number. The rest depends on Trump’s turnout. Trump might have a good idea of how many supporters he has identified. Trump can win, but Cruz already has a good idea of how many votes he will get.
FYI-Huckabee had 41K votes in 2008. That was a record.