Posted on 01/26/2016 9:18:41 AM PST by GodGunsGuts
...
Here's where the candidates are, and this reflects the size of their operations on the ground in Iowa. Note that all the candidates will be in Des Moines on the 28th for the Fox News GOP debate.
TRUMP
...
Trump can pull together a rally in practically any size arena and fill it, and bring staffers to the event with very little notice. All he needs is an airport. Notably, his GOTV online caucus-finder is smooth, easy to use, and very competently done. None of the other candidates have this feature (they should).
It's yet to be seen how well this hands-off approach works, or if Trump has an out-of-state effort to move potential supporters on caucus day. But nothing works better than a knock on the door.
CRUZ
The man is indestructible. Cruz is making 7 stops today. On the 27th he has a big pro-life rally with Rick Perry in Clive, followed by a string of 5 appearances between Ringside and Wapello on Friday. No break on Saturday with another 5 appearances between Hubbard and Sioux City, capped by a rally with Rep. Steve King.
On Sunday the 31st, Cruz continues in Iowa with 3 events (I assume after church), starting in Iowa City and ending in Des Moines with a rally at the State Fair Grounds. Monday, Feb 1 has Cruz in Jefferson and Marion for a pre-caucus rally at Grace Baptist Church.
That's a total of 23 events on Cruz's calendar-far more than anyone else. Only a well-developed, committed team on the ground can support this kind of whistle-stop campaigning. You can be sure that Cruz volunteers and staffers are calling every single voter to remind them to get to the caucuses, telling them where their locations are, offering to help with transportation...
(Excerpt) Read more at theresurgent.com ...
Ted Cruz 2016!!!!
They are both fighting. Different tactics. Both of these men are great. Proud to vote this time.
Home stretch. Can’t come soon enough. I’m sick and tired of hearing Iowa 24/7. Be done with it so we can move on.
Trump is smart. He is going to have a ton of military personnel all over the World caucus in Iowa. Never has happened before. That just may make the difference for Trump to win. Lord we need him.
Trump 2016.
Cruz - Best ground game since the 1972 Miami Dolphins. Has personally met every Iowa resident at least three times since May. Has near total support of the evangelicals who will travel through 10 feet of snow in forty below temperatures to vote for him on caucus day. As a result, Cruz will blow Trump out of the water and "Cruz" to easy wins in the next 49 states.
Trump - Air game only. No ground game whatsoever. His people on the ground have not a clue. Trump flies in on his big shiny jet, gives a speech to 10 or 15 thousand people at a time, and then flies back to New York City just so he can sleep in his own bed. His supporters are going to sit on their hands at home on caucus night because they won't want to go through the ordeal of finding their precinct meeting place and having to listen to boring speeches for an hour or so. They will use this night to catch up on Netflix shows. Maybe binge-watch back seasons of The Apprentice. Then they will turn on the 11:00PM news and be shocked that their guy didn't win.
I hope I summed things up pretty nicely. We'll see what happens this coming Monday.
Anyway, I'm so glad that in just one week, I'll be able to put Iowa in my rear view mirror for another four years. I have a bad case of Iowa fatigue.
Regarding organization: “ground game” is not just GOTV efforts.
The Cruz campaign contacted me in October asking if I would run for precinct captain. They have made lists of potential Cruz voters available to me so that I can encourage those voters to show up at our precinct and district caucuses where we will elect delegates for the county, state, and national conventions. Those caucuses start in mid February.
Our primary isn’t until late May. They’ve been organizing in California the same way and their primary is in June.
They’ve been organizing and planning for late primary states like those states were Iowa. That’s unprecedented.
Less than a week until we start seeing dividends.
Yep, Cruz has got a ground game second to none. Keep a stiff upper lip out there. We’re gonna win this thing!
In addition, no way Trump is perfoming at the level you describe. He is beneath that.
You just wait, one more week!
s/
I most certainly will wait. As a matter of fact, I’ll be rooting for both Trump and Cruz to do well. I’m hoping that Jebbie Bush and Rubio finish way in back of the pack.
Trump has Chuck Laudner.
Had precinct captain identified for every precinct, all 1682 of them, before Thanksgiving.
They are data mining every attendee from every rally in IA to mobilize caucusers.
In Oct the Trump “ground game” was described as ‘formidable’ and on track to deliver him up to 6 points above his poll point.
Did this all just disappear in the last 2 months? Doubtful.
My guess, they are leaving Trump out front to be Trump, and the campaign manager is doing his job without the cameras and fanfare.
If so, refreshing to have campaign managers and staff working for the leader of the team, and not clamoring for rave reviews themselves from the media, without need for self promotion.
Agree; and then there’s this:
Some interesting numbers:
Total Iowa Registered Republicans as of 1/14/16 = 1,046,955
- per Iowa Secretary of State website
(The 2012 total Republican caucus vote was 121,255).
These are the possible turnout results for 2016:
If 120,000 turn out, that = 11.4% turnout
If 140,000 turn out, that = 13.3%
If 160,000 turn out, that = 15.2%
If 180,000 turn out, that = 17.1%
If 200,000 turn out, that = 19.1%
It is entirely possible that 160,000 will turn out this year, just a one-third increase over 2012, and still just 15.2% of total registered Republicans.
Add to that the number of party-switchers who will also caucus Monday evening and the results could well be YUGE!
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.