Today he was just twisting polls. Last two gen election, he pumped up people believing GOP ticket will win and it was totally opposite. I think, when its done intentionally, its really sick and no credibility.
I am working on Software/Algorithm to predict election outcomes. My problem is its very difficult to get right weightage because everyone just lies. If you just depend on this forum, its bubble. Some people just keeping promoting falsehood, I think it makes them feel good. I have included them in negative weightage.
Wow Jenny - you’re working on sw algorithms. I’ve read your posts and know you’re smart, but holy cow! And, this is coming from someone who has worked in the tech industry for many years - while I’m not a techie, I’ve worked with many. Kudos to you on a very tough undertaking!
BTW - I heard that Microsoft has developed software for the Iowa caucuses so that they can input results right away and results will be calculated. Instead of waiting for a few weeks for results, we should have them in a few hours.
I had 3 qtrs of Stats in undergrad and 2 qters in Grad school so I know just enough to be dangerous.
That said...
The published polls differ, in large part, to the weighting applied.
If you could ascertain how to find the correct weighting, you WOULD become a zillionaire.
Keep up the good work, Jenny!