I am a Cruz supporter, but can hold my nose and vote for Trump if need be.
Right now, based on the polling data, this race is Trump’s to lose. Running some basic assumptions from the polling data shows that Trump will have enough delegate votes at the GOP convention to not go to a second ballot.
That's the way to read it with a >10% national lead. And this may be the one time RCP's 'averaging' at +16% is worth a damn, if forecasting the long trend.
Particularly when you look at who is going to get out after Super Tuesday (March 1, which happens to be about the same time it's no longer worth chasing downstream GOP primary ballot space), Sir Lard Huckabee & Santorum could give Cruz a small but noticeable +/-2 bump BUT Fiorina, Paul, Fatty Arbuckle, and Kasich abandoned bandwagoners would trend heavily Trump and consolidate his overall to the magic +50% while maintaining +/-20 on whoever takes 2nd at that point.
The x-factor is if Rubio or Bush suddenly abandons their campaign and pointedly throws support to the other one. Rubio is not just Bush's pet project but even moreso Romney's. And these GOPe/Globali$ts won't go quietly. If Bush's money people and Romney's money people told Bush to get out with a sharp lateral pass to Rubio, that fight for 2nd place behind Trump would be the more intriguing thing about the second half of the primary game.