I pinged an American FReeper living in Germany, his insight is quite enlightening.
There are roughly thirty-odd parties in existence in Germany....but only seven that really matter (they make up 95-percent of the vote). You have to go over the 5-percent point in a national election....to stand in Berlin’s gov’t.
CDU: Merkel’s party. Nationally, they have around 24-percent of the vote. Leans right. Rather split on the immigration issue but they’ve been pro-immigration up until the last three months. The Koln episode has made them open up and some of the big-time members discuss the problems in the open now. The Pfalz candidate for the March election has been hostile toward immigration for months now, and she’s got around 35-percent of that one state’s support.
CSU: Sister party of the CDU, but strictly for Bavaria. Leans further right than CDU. Nationally, they take about 10-percent of the vote, but it all comes from Bavaria. They are anti-immigration and really a thorn in Merkel’s side for past year. They want border controls, quicker exit for trouble-makers, more cops, etc. They are threatening to leave the coalition with CDU/SPD, and possibly unhooking themselves as a sister party. Their guy shows some charisma but he’s also burned out and near retirement. Someone new will step up for the 2017 race and replace him. They aren’t supposed to operate in the fifteen other German states....just Bavaria (some unwritten deal with the CDU).
SPD: Leans left. Coalition partner of CDU. Nationally, they have 28-to-30 percent of the vote. From the three states in March with elections....zero chance of them winning. Has been pumped up and pro-immigrant. Last six months...they’ve shown some backtracking and agreed to changes. I’d say a quarter of their typical voters are anti-immigrant and they’ve got issues. None of their top five political figures whip enthusiasm. These guys went out and hired some big-time Democrat strategist from the states to help in the plan for the national election in Nov 2017. They need a lot of help.
The Linke Party. Left-over communist party, which reformed into a middle-of-the-road socialist group. Nationally, they can pull 12-to-15 percent of the vote (mostly from old DDR territory). They have one ultra smart gal who is the ‘boss’ of the party, and does well in debates with her there. They are pro-immigrant...but the ‘boss’ gal came out last week with a slam on immigration and shocked a few of the hardcore members. She said there is a limit and numbers need to be established. In the March elections (3 states), there’s one state where they might pull 24-percent.
The FDP Part. Pro-business, less taxation theme. I’d call them the Republican-lite party. Maybe 5-percent of the nation favoring them. Up until the last month, they were pro-immigration. They adjusted their message and suggest some limits. No one nationally attracts more interest and they are a lesser player in politics.
The Greens. Strictly pro-environment, pro-immigration. Nationally, they can take 12-to-14 percent of the vote. In Baden-Wurttemberg (the state), because of anti-Stuttgart-21 project...they soared way up and dissolved the bulk of SPD voters. Just in Baden-Wurttemberg, they can take 30-percent of the vote. In east German states, they rarely get above 8-percent.
The AfD Party. They were the anti-EU party when created in 2012. With that theme, they could take 6-to-8 percent of the vote. Last year, they fired the head guy...refocused the party on anti-immigration, and now have a solid 10-percent of the national vote. Some think in the March election (3 states) that they might get up around 16-to-18 percent of the vote....mostly from frustrated voters. Their big issues are one single four-star person at the national level, a bunch of Nazi-like enthusiasts tagging along, no other platforms other than anti-immigration talk. There is some fear that the AfD might swing around and be anti-NATO if they were a major player in the government. Zero chance of being invited as a partner to anyone who might win, in terms of a coalition government.
All of this leads to a very complicated path. Germans have options on voting. It doesn’t really help much. National election occurs every four years (Nov 2017 is the next one). State elections occur every five years, and usually don’t have much meaning. This March election is different because it’s a sign of agreement/disagreement with Merkel’s policy. A lot of people who were CDU and FDP voters are angry and frustrated...with talk of flipping votes for the March election. The question of how many ‘flippers’ exist and if they possibly include SPD voters is what the news media can’t really predict.
The cherry on this cake is that 60-plus percent of the nation doesn’t trust the news media anymore and pin part of the current problem on them.
The whole immigration program has become complicated and difficult for the average German to understand, or to grasp the actual cost. They want someone to fix this but no one can say what the real fix should be in the end.
Note, I didn’t mention the NPD Party (the Nazi-stance party). Nationally, they might pull 1 to 2 percent of the votes. Naturally, they are anti-immigration. The SPD has tried to get the court system to remove them from public activity. The AfD guys benefit from unhappy NPD voters, and thus take a fair number of their voters away.