If my count is correct, CSU has 67 seats. Even without them, the CDU/SPD would have 436 seats out of 630, so it wouldn’t bring the center-left government down. They’d have to get about half of the CDU to break ranks to bring Merkel down.
If CSU/Bavaria validates AfD that will sap enormous support from CDU.
Even many on the left in SPD would defect for a nativist message in this atmosphere.
Give it one national election, see what happens.
I think the bigger question would be this unwritten rule that has existed for fifty-odd years between the CSU and CDU. The CDU doesn’t run any politics in Bavaria, and the CSU doesn’t run any politics in the other 15 states. It would be curious if we reach a stage by April where not only do they part but the CSU promises to campaign in other states. After the March state elections (3)....there are two state election in Oct/Nov of 2016.
Right now, based on commentary from a handful of Germans I’ve come across...they were right-leaning for years, but won’t vote for the CDU in the next election (of any type). If that feeling exists across all of Germany...the CSU could go to various state elections and start collecting twenty-percent win’s easily.
There are a lot of oddball scenarios that you could see by Nov 2017 (the next big national election).