Posted on 01/15/2016 5:20:44 AM PST by Kaslin
To awaken Thursday to front-page photos of U.S. sailors kneeling on the deck of their patrol boat, hands on their heads in postures of surrender, on Iran's Farsi Island, brought back old and bad memories.
In January 1968, LBJ's last year, 82 sailors of the Pueblo were captured by North Korea and held hostage with Captain Lloyd "Pete" Bucher, and abused and tortured for a year before release.
In the final 444 days of the Carter presidency, 52 Americans were held hostage in Tehran, and released only when Ronald Reagan raised his hand to take the oath.
In 2001, under George W. Bush, an EP-3 with 24 crew members was crashed by a Chinese fighter and forced to land on Hainan Island, where they were held for 11 days until we expressed "sorrow."
Compared to these hostage-takings, the Farsi Island incident does not seem serious. Its resolution within hours by Secretary of State John Kerry and Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif suggests that Iran wants nothing to halt implementation, just days away, of the nuclear deal that will release $100 billion in frozen assets.
Facilitating the sailors' release was a taped admission by one, identified as the "commander," who called Iran's treatment of the sailors "fantastic," and said the intrusion into Iranian waters "was a mistake. That was our fault. And we apologize for our mistake."
Still, what the reactions to this incident reveal is that not only is the United States dealing with a divided regime and nation in Iran, the U.S. is itself divided on what course to pursue with Iran.
"This administration's craven desire to preserve the dangerous Iranian nuclear deal at all costs evidently knows no limits," said John McCain. He castigated U.S. officials, presumably including Kerry, for "falling all over themselves to offer praise for Iran's graciousness in detaining our ships and service members.
Marco Rubio, inflamed over the treatment of the sailors, pledged anew to kill the nuclear deal on his first day in office. But by then Iran will have complied with its terms and gotten its cash.
Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy Commander Ali Fadavi warned that "the USS Truman aircraft carrier showed unprofessional moves for 40 minutes after the detention of the trespassers."
Fadavi added that Iran "was highly prepared with our coast-to-sea missiles" and "missile launching speedboats" to strike, had the U.S. warship taken action. Last fall, Iran tested two ballistic missiles in violation of U.N. Security Council resolutions, and a missile boat a mile from the Truman test-fired a rocket in the opposite direction.
There may be bluster and bluff in this. But if the RGC had fired at the Truman, that would have brought swift retaliation and a possible air, naval and missile war in the Persian Gulf.
Any prospective U.S. detente with Iran would be dead.
And, truth be told, some Americans, Saudis, Sunni Arabs and Israelis, who regard Iran as an existential threat, would relish seeing U.S. power unleashed against Iran.
So, too, many of the mullahs and Revolutionary Guard Corps might welcome a clash to abort the nuclear deal, restore the purity of their revolution, and rout the allies of President Hassan Rouhani in the February elections.
Indeed, assuming no clash in the next six weeks, the date to watch is Feb. 26, when elections are held for control of Iran's 290-seat assembly.
A Guardian Council has power to disqualify candidates and it is likely that of the 12,000 who have filed, many will be purged for not supporting the principles of the Islamic Republic as required.
Yet, if President Rouhani, his prestige enhanced by the nuclear deal, to which all five U.N. Security Council members have signed on, and with billions being released to Iran, wins, a brighter day will begin.
And the world will await the reaction of the defeated hard-liners.
That same Feb. 26, elections are to be held for the 88-seat clerical Experts Assembly, which will choose the successor to Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, himself the successor, 25 years ago, to Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, founding father of the revolution.
Rumors of Khamenei's deteriorating health -- he reportedly has suffered from stage 4 prostate cancer -- could mean the Experts Assembly will be naming soon a new Supreme Leader of Iran.
The Feb. 26 elections could thus decide whether there is to be a cold peace between the United States and Iran, or a new war in the Middle East.
In the summer of 1914, the Great War came because, in the great capitals -- Berlin, Vienna, Moscow, Paris, London -- those who saw war as a disaster for civilization were outmaneuvered by more resolute men who saw war as the opportunity to smash hated rivals once and for all.
Anti-war Americans and Iranians won this one; they will have to win them all. The war parties, here and over there, need win only once.
Secondly, both sides may be stepping back from the brink, but one side is stepping up to the teller's window to withdraw $160B.
How did this happen anyway? This boat was bristling with guns and people that knew how to use them. Did they not carry any ammunition? What were the ROE?
Did they run out of gas? Did they make a navigational error? I don't believe the "mechanical failure" story. Each boat had two engines and rope. Did all four engines fail?
I said to people back in 2008 that the “Hope and Change” line will someday become a sarcastic utterance. I knew this because BHO arrogance was such that he was guaranteed to be humbled by God.
Looks like that day has arrived
Sorry Pat. We are in bed with Iran, not in opposition.
We stepped from the brink with the USSR, back when we had President Kennedy, a real American (the last democrat that did not come out of a freak show).
Islam means submission. The usa has bowed down in submission according to plan.
Bull. We lost this. They humiliated us. Any oportunity to squash these bugs is a good thing and squash them we CAN and SHOULD - as soon as possible.
To awaken Thursday to front-page photos of U.S. sailors kneeling on the deck of their patrol boat, hands on their heads in postures of surrender,
In postures of humiliating submission, to have a masculine man on his knee's....disgusting to the extreme
IMO this was a planned event. We just submitted to Iran. Iran has disputed it’s control of the Straits of Hormuz. We just handed them control.
That “commander” needs to be court martialed. And did they throw any sensitive items overboard before they were boarded? This stinks like dog poop and is directly at the feet of obama and kerry.
We are not in bed with the Iranians, but we are bent over for them.
I expect there will be a war between the US and Iran. Iran is doing all it can to provoke one short of directly attacking our Navy.
Iran's regime is apocalyptic. They believe that the return of their mahdi is imminent but he will only come back in the midst of an apocalyptic struggle between islam and 'Rome'. If Khameini really is as sick as Pat says this could come sooner rather than later. The evil bastard would probably relish going out in a blaze of glory.
Oh a mahdi is coming back some day in the form of a God named Jesus Christ. Nothing Iran or the US or ISIS does will hasten or slow that day that will come. It is all God's time, His time is a day as a thousand years and a thousand years as a day.
Biblical prophecy has Damascus destroyed in a night and Egypt uninhabitable for 40 years. Those two events will happen before the Messiah returns, it may be decades away still.
There's no doubt that Christ will return...but I wouldn't refer to him as mahdi. I'm not advocating that Iran's actions will trigger their mahdi's return, I'm simply pointing out that they believe that it will.
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