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What do you have to support your assertion that in the general election Trump will win New York? I'm not trying to pick a fight and I don't want to get into a Trump/Cruz battle. This is a serious question. If you can convince me, with evidence, that Trump will win NY, I'd consider supporting him over Cruz.

I think the best way to begin is to explain why it is unlikely that Cruz can win New York in the general election (presumably without Trump on the ticket). As everyone knows, New York has been in the 'RAT camp since 1988, the last Republican to carry New York was Ronald Reagan in 1984. For Cruz to capture New York for the GOP column, he would have to shed his image as a conservative, evangelistic Senator from Texas. Cruz is not "one of them" and his comment about 'New York values' is probably going to come back to haunt him, and that is another example of him NOT playing smart politics. New Yorkers will find it a bit off-putting when Cruz rallies begin or end up in some sort of 'come-to-Jesus' moment with calls to "put on the full armor of God", and just this past week Cruz said "I believe the key to winning in 2016 is very simple: we have to bring back the millions of evangelical voters who stayed home. We have to awaken and energise the body of Christ." (emphasis mine, mkj).

I would not expect Cruz to change his campaign approach in order to appeal to New Yorkers, his own personal commitment to Christ would prohibit him from engaging in such spiritual hypocrisy. The sad truth is that New Yorkers are not looking to elect a Pope, a chaplain, or any sort of religious figure, they want a strong, brash all-business leader who knows how to play smash-ball with the best (and worst) of them.

Trump is obviously a native New Yorker, he is certainly more of a New Yorker than Hillary Rotten Criminal and her success in becoming New York's junior Senator in 2000 was not due to her amazing political skills, it was based more on the weakness of her Republican opponents. Trump has been good for New York, and New York has been good for him, and like him or not (and like New York or not), that is a truism. New Yorkers will almost always stick with 'one of their own' and by definition that means Trump.

And an additional factor: Trump would expend whatever effort necessary to assure his carrying his home state. I don't think it would be an uphill battle at all. A political candidate really has to be an institutional loser (like Al Gore) to lose their own home state, and just because Hillary and Huma keep a house in Chappaqua, doesn't make them true New Yorkers. Trump wins that contest hands down.

In the end, there isn't any way to convince you to support Trump instead of Cruz, both men are in my opinion, good and decent Americans, and I could vote for either one of them. The political reality as I see it is that Trump would be more likely to prevail in the general election based not only on his own broad based appeal, but due to Cruz's more narrow appeal to primarily evangelical Christians, and Cruz has to sweep the board with that voting bloc to even have a chance of bringing it all together for an electoral win.

Vote your conscience, and vote your gut.

What do you have to support your assertion that in the general election Trump will win New York?

Trump will win NY for several reasons. First, you have to understand that NY outside of NYC leans Republican. So for a Republican to win NY you have to focus on how he'll do in NYC. As a native of the City and having worked NYC politics for decades, Trump has a knowledge of the city that's second to none. He's also a home-town hero there and embodies the sort of bad-boy brashness that NYers love. That's a huge asset.

Trump doesn't even have to win NYC to win NY. All he has to do is move the needle away from the 90% Democratic that NYC typically votes to something more balanced. Given how he's resonating with the working class, blacks, and women, this is a low bar to set. Trump's daughter Ivanka is also married to Joshua Kushner, who is part of one of NYC's most influential Jewish families, giving Trump a blood-bond with a major demographic that also historically votes overwhelmingly Democratic.

Count on it. NY will be called for Trump early, setting the tone for a very depressing evening for Team Hillary.